Many have written that former governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, who recently decamped to Labour Party, may not have a great chance to the Nigerian Presidency. They posited that Labour Party does not have a solid structure to win the Presidency. To a large extent, these pundits are partly correct, but there are things they must consider:
- Previous elections in Nigeria are not good indicators. Due to the new electoral law, party representatives have more time to campaign for the general elections. In the past, nominees were concluded around October/November. Today, we are doing the same thing in May. That gives a solid extra 5 months for candidates to tell their stories with enough room for parties to merge and push the messages to voters. Mr. Obi has time.
- PDP has wounded South by discarding the rotational structure. I expect it to struggle in the South in the next election. If people are unhappy with PDP, Obi has an opportunity to convert them.
- APC in a likely bid to “weaken” Atiku who is carrying PDP flag will be under stress to nominate someone from the North. If that happens, Southwest will go cold on APC and that will be an own-goal for APC. But if the party goes ahead and nominates someone from Southwest, the game moves back to the old regional blocks of the second republic.
- Under that structure with Atiku for North, Tinubu or Osinbajo for West, and Obi for East, the emerging “hidden voting power” will surface. And Obi has a huge opportunity.
What is the Hidden Voting Power? The Southeast is the second largest ethnic group in any part of Nigeria, after the indigenous tribe. While Southeast may not have huge voters, the fact is that even the one counted by Southwest and other regions have a heavy dose of Southeast and that number is in double digit percentage in some states.
Under that redesign, anything can happen considering that voters (yes Nigerians) are looking for a way to redemption. In other words, ideas can carry the 2023 election instead of pure regional politics. If Obi works hard and makes his case, you may be surprised that Nigerians can hire him. This applies to other candidates: the delegates may be disappointed and this could become an issue-based election where ideas are supreme!
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I am rooting for Tinubu or Osinbajo for APC so that we can see them work hard in the ring for votes, knowing that regional tribal sentiments have been magically out-structured and frozen, by delegates, unintentionally.
Atiku Gets PDP Flag for Presidency – And The Battle Ahead with Obi, Tinubu
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if I say this is the best analysis of the situation, it will be because this is exactly what I believe is going on. I believe the owners of Nigeria (Britain) has agreed that Peter Obi will help preserve the sanity of Nigeria enough for Europe to get out of the mess it is facing now with Russia.
A lot depends on who the APC picks, if they go north, then Peter Obi’s path to Aso Rock is clearer, don’t let naysayers tell you there’s no chance, they are simply telling you that they don’t want to vote for the man; but since they are not courageous enough to say so, they will hide it under things like ‘political structure’, or ‘only APC and PDP can produce president’. It’s the thinking of confused and disgruntled people, so the first thing is to discredit anyone who might pose a threat to their preferred candidate, we know them.
We have enough dissatisfied Nigerians capable of turning any aspirant into a major political force, since it’s a number game, except the confused minds are telling us that it’s no longer about numbers but ‘structures’. Either way, there’s enough time to upend everything.
If Nigerians want Obi, he will either win or come very close to winning. How is he going to do that? By turning the election into a referendum, where those who want money politics and same old politicians to line up on one side, while the rest who desire real change and want to banish money politics to line up on the other side. Blast the message in every corner of Nigeria, turn it into a movement, then we will see.
Words matter.
My personal plea to all Nigerian youths and all well-meaning Nigerians who desire a new Nigeria in all honesty to rise up to the occasion. It is no longer a time of talking without action. The Igbo, as Prof. rightly submitted is the second largest group of people in all other regions across the nation, this journey is in their hands if they could come out of the sentiment of “My vote doesn’t count”. Besides, there are millions of Nigerians who have done their individual research on the antecedents of these aspirants and can speak for themselves.
It is not a question of whether or not Nigerians are tired of all these old guards except of course those who are making direct gains from the ineptitude of these people. It is also not whether or not there’s anything special being expected from them compared to what hope a person like Peter Obi brings to the table.
The question, however, is whether or not those who know and believe that we are running out of time to save Nigeria would be courageous enough to go into this fight with Obi no matter what it takes and stand with him through the end? The young Nigerians irrespective of religious, regional or political affiliation should hire themselves in any field of their individual endeavour they think necessary to support this man.
It is not an Obi’s fight but our collective fight as a people. people should prevail in the Obi circle to do everything possible to work with Kwankwaso. He is another people’s man that does not rely on money sharing or selfish interests. A man with a mission to turn things around for the betterment of his people. A man with a good heart whose antecedent speaks for itself. People like Ben Bruce should do anything possible to give the team of Obi/kwankwaso for this all-important game.
I have never personally felt compelled to engage myself directly in the process of the presidential election in Nigeria since after MKO until now. It is in our hands to see Obi succeed not in the hands of PDP or APC. With the amended electoral process let us believe that something would be a little different if not completely different, lets us hold that belief as our compelling power to commit ourselves to this election this time.
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Let integrity win over negligence! It is time for Nigeria and Nigerians to be decisive. Make your choice and stand by it. For me, I am OBIdient in nature.
The Nigeria of today wish for ‘Quality Over Money’ politics. and I believe that HE Peter Obi will become the President of Nigeria come 2023:
‘By turning the election into a referendum, where those who want money politics and same old politicians to line up on one side, while the rest who desire real change and want to banish money politics to line up on the other side.’ by Francis Oguaju