Africa, with its abundance of strategic resources, favorable demographics, and attractive growth prospects, is set to become a pivotal player in global geopolitics. While challenges such as intra-regional conflicts, widespread poverty, and corruption persist, there are several factors that indicate a positive trajectory for the continent.
Africa’s population is projected to reach 2.5 billion people by 205, constituting approximately a quarter of the world’s populace. The median age for the continent is just 18 years, significantly younger than any other region. As a result, the African middle class is expected to grow substantially, reaching 1.1 billion by 2060. This demographic dividend will drive consumer spending and economic growth.
The African continent boasts 30% of the world’s mineral reserves, including rare earth metals critical for modern technologies. Demand for these resources is expected to soar in the coming years. Additionally, e-commerce is on the rise across Africa, with internet users projected to increase from 520 million in 2021 to over 850 million by 2030.
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Global standards for democracy and sovereignty have matured, providing African countries with institutional backing to protect their resources from exploitation. This support helps deter asymmetrical plundering of Africa’s wealth.
The U.S.-China rivalry continues to play out on the global stage, with Africa being no exception. While the jockeying for standing between the United States and China is more intense in the Asia-Pacific region, where the threat of military conflict is real, Africa has not escaped this growing great power rivalry.
China’s engagement with Africa dates back to the continent’s pre-independence period when ideologically driven Beijing supported liberation movements fighting colonial powers. Today, China still draws political goodwill from this legacy. However, it’s China’s commercial engagement that has ballooned over the last two decades and is most significant.
Infrastructure Lending: China is the biggest infrastructure lender in Africa. Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has given Beijing high standing in many African countries. Trade Partnership: China is a top trade partner for African nations.
Political and Cultural Influence: China actively seeks political and cultural influence by providing political party training, building government buildings, and donating sports stadiums and hospitals.
Forum on China-Africa Cooperation: China has committed to a well-developed and consistent Africa policy centered around its Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, held every three years.
U.S. Policy Toward China in Africa
While the Biden administration may seek general areas of cooperation with Beijing, its Africa policy will certainly reflect its overarching aim of challenging China. The Trump administration had made countering China a priority in its Africa policy. Growing Bipartisan Support: There is growing bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress for “hardline” policies.
As U.S. policy has increasingly focused on countering China’s influence worldwide, Africa has also come under this lens. While the administration and Congress consider approaches and policy options, it is important to ask what Africans think of U.S. efforts to counter China’s growing role on their continent. While U.S. foreign policy should serve American interests, it will be most successful if cognizant and, when possible, reflective of the interests and aspirations of Africans.
According to Afrobarometer data, China is generally viewed favorably by Africans. In recent surveys conducted across 16 countries, 60% of respondents said that China’s influence is “somewhat” or “very positive.” This is down slightly from 65% who held this view five years ago, with declines in 10 of the 16 countries surveyed. However, a few countries report increases in positive views, led by Ghana with a 13% increase.
While the common perception held by outside observers is that China’s influence in Africa is growing, Afrobarometer reports that Africans perceive Chinese influence as having declined in almost all countries surveyed. This nuanced view highlights the need for U.S. policymakers to consider local perspectives when formulating policies related to Africa and its engagement with China.
The Biden administration’s U.S. Africa strategy acknowledges that “Sub-Saharan Africa’s governments, institutions, and people will play a critical role in solving global challenges.” It also recognizes that China views Africa as “an important arena to challenge the rules-based international order’‘.