When The Deaf “Hears” The War Dance and the Grains from Ukraine for Africa

To all the market makers and investors over there, there is material data you need to include in your model, if your business is within the broad nexus of agro- and agro-allied in sub-Saharan Africa. Yes, the Ukraine grain deal which enables the country to ship grains to selected regions of the world  has been terminated because the United Nations, Russia and Ukraine could not attain equilibrium on extending it due to many reasons. 

Russia said Monday it was suspending its participation in a crucial deal that allowed the export of Ukrainian grain, once again raising fears over global food supplies and scuppering a rare diplomatic breakthrough to emerge from Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

The agreement, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations in July 2022, was officially set to expire at 5 p.m. ET on Monday (midnight local time in Istanbul, Kyiv, and Moscow).

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday that Russia would not renew the pact right now, saying it “has been terminated.”

Russia has for some time complained that it is being prevented from adequately exporting its own foodstuffs, and Peskov cited that objection as the reason for pulling out of the deal. “As soon as the Russian part is completed, the Russian side will return to the implementation of this deal immediately,” he told reporters.

Yet, that a war-ravaged Ukraine is actually exporting food to Africa makes one feel unhappy. But that is the case when everyone is pursuing minerals, hydrocarbons, etc, ignoring agriculture. 

In the Igbo Nation, the elders will say “anaghi asi ochi nti na agha esula [no one tells a deaf person that war has broken out because it is self-evident when war breaks out]. So, in the next coming days, the prices of your cereal, etc will begin to go up in Nigeria, Ghana, Mail, etc – and that adds another layer to the inflationary paralysis ravaging our economies right now.

Please leave Ukraine and Russia out of this, this is our fault and problem; we need to return to agriculture and go back to the spirit of community building, instead of expecting everything to come from abroad! Good enough that the Nigerian government has activated a state of emergency on agriculture – let’s make it work!

Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu has declared a state of emergency on food security, following soaring prices of food items in the country. The move follows increasing outcry by Nigerians over the rising cost of living that has made life in the country unaffordable for many.

In a statement issued on Thursday, the President said the state of emergency will tackle the rising cost of food and tame food inflation.

“Today, we declared a state of emergency and unveiled a comprehensive intervention plan on food security, affordability, and sustainability, taking decisive action to tackle food inflation. These are steps towards a more food-secure Nigeria for all.

Comment on Feed

The simple innovation required is substituting grains for tubers. Per capita footprint of tubers is far less than grains. You can get 30Tons on a hectare of tubers versus grains that average around 5tons. Tubers are the future and Nigeria is by far the global Tuber capital

— UWenxStrtgy (@uwenx007) July 17, 2023

My Response: I am not into agro-trading but I do not think the tonnage per hectare is the best metric. I can get 20tons/hectare for crop A at $100 while for Crop B, I get 5tons/ha for $500; as a businessman (not a farmer), farming Crop B makes sense even though yield on tonnage may be low. How many people consume tuber? But if you do grain, General Mills of the world can wire you $$billions ahead. This is why our farmers need to be businesspeople also.

The best crop when I farmed in the village with my grandmother was Obiaturugo, a variety of yam. After nkam, idima, that variety is respected because it is mass-farmed (the other two are rarely mass-farmed, diminishing their market relevance even though they’re great in the ranking of varieties). But the irony is that cassava, which is seen as a lesser crop, was how they paid my school fees because cassava (the resistant variety to cassava mosaic disease) was more convertible when you needed cash.

Comment 2: It’s so pathetic that I can’t get land or resources from govt to add my quota to the economy of my country. Where as in Europe, as an immigrant after working and learning, one is entitled to land and resources to create and build a farm from the government

My Response: Why do you think it is a good idea to get land from the government to farm? That is another person’s land. Why not raise money and buy the land? In Europe, the government does not “give” land. Rather, the government buys land from people and “makes” the land available to farmers under agreement.

But in Nigeria or Africa, the government does not have money to do that land from owners. But if you have money to farm and the only issue is money to buy land, I can assure you that most states in Nigeria will give you all the land you need on “purpose” which means you have access but the day you stop farming, the land goes back to the owners.

Let me know: I can help you in Abia State if the issue is land but you have funds to invest in agriculture. We can give you land on purpose for 5 years on the conditions you farm on them. But when you have no more interest, the land returns back to the original owners.

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