The population of Lagos State is about 27 million people. Out of that number, at least 15 million are qualified to vote, being over 18 years (and meeting other requirements), in my model. In 2019, about 6.5 million registered to vote in Lagos State. But out of that number, about 1 million actually voted.
If you run the math, less than 7% of qualified citizens made the call. Then move to Abia State, Oyo State and across most parts of Southern Nigeria, you will notice one thing: if we have a party, Non-Voters Party, which will receive all registered voters who did not vote, that party will win all elections in Nigeria, from local to the federal.
Now you get the whole idea: fanatical party members – yes, the bulk of that 7% – are making the calls. Consider that as you plan to watch Zee World or play video games next month when you could have gone out to vote.
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Comment 1: You’re right Professor Ndubuisi Ekekwe . Voter apathy is one of the challenges facing Nigeria’s electoral system. Very few of eligible voters actually participate in the electoral exercise, which only favours the political class. Surprisingly, large percentage of eligible but non-voting citizens are the educated elites who criticize Govt on the internet and at road junctions everyday. But we are going to see a significant positive change in this coming election. The truth is, no matter how we look at it, the Nigerian electoral system is maturing and by 2039 the participation of electorates will be significant that it will be difficult to bribe one’s way to political office. The future is bright.
Comment 2: Ndubuisi Ekekwe, Sometimes I wonder why grown ups will decide to stay at home and allow their next four to eight years be decided by others. It is unfathomable for me. I hope we get it right this time, else we all pay the heavy price for at least another four years.
Final Results of Nigeria’s 2019 Presidential Election by States – APC (19), PDP (18)
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I am expecting some 40% – 45% voter turnout this year, should be more like it. If it were to be just APC vs PDP, the turnout would be worse than that of 2019. You cannot decouple quality of candidates from voters apathy.
From my keen observation lately, LP will win Lagos at the presidential election if the elections are free & fair. More than 90% of the people collecting their PVCs are Obedient. One challenge though, many more people will be disenfranchised because their voters card were not printed