In his televised Independence Day address on Tuesday morning, Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu highlighted the achievements of his administration, particularly in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI).
The president boasted that Nigeria had secured $30 billion in FDI over the past year, a claim he credited to the economic reforms implemented since his assumption of office in May 2023. He stressed that these reforms were critical in averting economic collapse and stabilizing the country financially.
“Thanks to the reforms, our country attracted foreign direct investments worth more than $30 billion in the last year,” he noted.
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However, a review of official data from Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) raises significant questions about the president’s claim. According to NBS figures, Nigeria received far less in foreign direct investment during the period in question. Between the third quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024—marking the first nine months of the Tinubu administration—Nigeria received a total of only $362.92 million in FDI. Specifically, the country attracted $59.77 million in Q3 2023, $183.97 million in Q4 2023, and $119.18 million in Q1 2024.
The discrepancy is further underscored when looking at FDI figures from earlier periods. In Q2 2023, just before Tinubu took office, FDI stood at $86.03 million, while Q1 2023 saw an inflow of $47.06 million. For comparison, Nigeria earned $84.23 million in Q4 2022, $81.72 million in Q3 2022, $147.16 million in Q2 2022, and $154.97 million in Q1 2022. None of these figures remotely approach the $30 billion referenced by the president, leading to questions about the source of this figure.
Given the large discrepancy between the president’s statement and the available data, analysts have expressed concern about the potential implications of these inaccuracies. Kalu Aja, a Nigerian economist, warned that misrepresenting economic data can damage investor confidence, especially in a global context where foreign investors closely monitor such announcements.
“The president’s Independence Day speech, specifically the economic parts, are filled with inaccuracies and falsehoods,” Aja stated. “These are not simple errors; these are gross lies and falsehoods, and it’s pretty straightforward to fact-check these.”
He warned that foreign investors and multinational organizations are part of the global audience that closely follows the president’s statements. Such inaccuracies, he argued, could undermine Nigeria’s credibility on the international stage.
“How does a Bloomberg trader trust a nation whose president says FDI was $30 billion in 12 months, yet reserves are $37 billion and the currency is depreciating to $1?” he asked.
Implications for Investor Confidence
Others have noted that the president’s assertion of a $30 billion FDI influx is not just a matter of domestic concern. For international investors, accurate data is crucial for making informed decisions. Nigeria, already grappling with currency depreciation, high inflation, and a volatile economic environment, cannot afford to undermine its credibility with foreign stakeholders, they said.
FDI is considered one of the most vital sources of capital for developing countries like Nigeria, offering a key pathway to stimulating economic growth, job creation, and infrastructure development. However, inflows have been declining in recent years, partly due to the country’s economic instability and policy uncertainties.
Aja also pointed out that the discrepancies in the president’s speech raise red flags, and could cause investors to pull out or avoid the Nigerian market altogether.
“The media and strategy team of the President must realize that when President Tunubu speaks, it is a record, and his audience is also outside of Nigeria, this audience includes investors and Multinational agencies,” he said.
During his speech, Tinubu also claimed success in areas such as reducing the debt service ratio from 97% to 68%, clearing inherited forex backlogs, and stabilizing the country’s foreign reserves at $37 billion.
While these measures may point to some level of economic progress, the gap between official FDI data and the President’s claims raises questions about transparency in his administration’s reforms.