#TinubuOneYearOfFailure: Nigerian President Marks An Unpopular First Anniversary

Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu is marking his first year in office, having taken the mantle of leadership from his predecessor Muhammadu Buhari on this day in 2023.

Tinubu’s emergence as Nigeria’s president was described as the most controversial in the country’s history, with many around the world describing his victory upheld by the nation’s Supreme Court as “stolen.” Although his victory came off as controversial as his identity, education and life record, Nigerians had hoped that the former governor of Lagos State – who his supporters said developed the blueprint that places the state on its current infrastructural and economic status, would change the country’s current economic trajectory, adamantly created by his predecessor.

For some, their hope is deep-rooted in Tinubu’s widely publicized leadership skills and his Renewed Hope mantra, while others hope that he could at least, alleviate the economic hardship that emanated from his predecessor’s leadership. However, as Tinubu’s administration marks its one year in office, both groups find themselves disappointed.

So when the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, last week announced that the Nigerian government is going to hold a “low-key” official ceremony to mark the one year in office of President Bola Tinubu, many attributed the decision to overwhelming failure. This means, although not surprising to many, the president was not to give a State of the Nation address.

Therefore, on Wednesday, May 29, 2024, the trend table of social media platform X, has on its top – #TinubuOneYearOfFailure. Pouring in under this hashtag are lamentations of Nigerians across the board. Some expressed their regret in supporting Tinubu, while others unleashed their “I told you so” vindication.

“Agbado nation can bark for days. But this is the terrible situation of the country in black and white,” Omotayo Williams wrote. “Raw factual data and information, NOT vibes and inshallah. Statistics will show your failure.”

Another Nigerian named Eniola wrote, “Nigeria has never been this worse since I was born. Yes Bubu [Buhari] came with his own shege [hardship] that I almost dropped out of the University despite hawking. Alhamdulillah we no break. Tinubu one year in office worse than Bubu 8 years.” 

Tinubu started his presidency with a major policy reform announcement – the removal of fuel subsidy, which has gulped over $10 billion over the last 10 years, prompting calls from both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank for its removal. Other policy reforms followed: particularly, the floating of Nigeria’s foreign exchange market – aimed at achieving a unified exchange rate for the country through the removal of control pegs around the naira.

Following these two policy reforms, which were widely hailed as the basic steps to attract foreign investments, Nigeria witnessed its highest rates of inflation, with the naira falling to pieces in the forex market.

“In the first month of his Presidency, BAT [Tinubu] was flying, reforms were being announced, and the international community (and I) applauded,” Economist, Kalu Aja, noted.

What went wrong? Was a popular question

“Then everything stalled,” Aja further stated.

He said, “Reforms announced were reversed in secret, programs were implemented poorly, and a real sense that there are no adults in the room has taken over.”

As Tinubu marks his first anniversary, the naira exchanges at N1,1173.88/$1 on the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) window – its highest one-day increase since January 2024. The embattled currency, which currently trades at N1,468/$1 at the parallel market,  has fallen to more than N1,800/$1, creating the most volatile market Nigeria has ever witnessed.

The same goes with petroleum products which went to the roof upon the removal of fuel subsidy. Fuel presently sells for N600 – N800 per liter across the country. Tinubu met the pump price at N238 per liter and the exchange rate at around N440 to $1 in May 2023.

With oil as Nigeria’s major source of revenue, the free fall of the naira is attributed mainly to poor oil output tied to the oil theft and infrastructure vandalism crisis in the Niger Delta – a problem that has refused to go away.

Another significant failure highlighted in Tinubu’s first anniversary is insecurity. The SBM Intelligence platform reported that approximately 5,000 Nigerians were murdered and 7,000 kidnapped in the last 12 months, a trajectory that is likely going to surpass his predecessor’s, who recorded an estimated 63,111 fatalities in eight years.

These backdrops have resulted in the exodus of multinational companies in the country, as local businesses shut down due to overwhelming economic headwinds.

Currently, Nigeria’s inflation rate, which dazzles at 33.69% as of April, has been attributed to these three significant factors – especially food inflation which has climbed above 40%. Food inflation is said to be significantly buoyed by insecurity in northern Nigeria and the high cost of transportation.

This situation resulted in the current loggerhead between organized labor unions – seeking minimum wage increase – and the federal government. The labor unions said the sky-high inflation emanating from the government’s policy reforms has significantly depleted workers’ spending power – requiring immediate review of the minimum wage to N494,000 to be commensurate with the rising cost of living. The current N30,000 ($25) monthly minimum wage has been described as a mockery of workers’ misery.

It was hoped that the removal of fuel subsidy, which increased FAAC (federal government’s monthly allocation to states and local governments), will put more money in the governments purse, enabling them to meet the proposed minimum wage financial obligation. However, that hope suddenly grew dim as the government quietly went back to paying fuel subsidies.

While some believe that it’s too early to judge Tinubu’s government, given the battered economy he inherited from Buhari, many have expressed concern that his administration, so far, has shown no sustainable economic plan.

“The present administration has not found the right way to handle the economy to engender confidence and trust for investors to start trooping in,” former president Olusegun Obasanjo said.

A review of Nigeria’s inflation rates one year after the inauguration of successive democratic governments from 1999, reveals significant fluctuations, highlighting diverse economic impacts and policy outcomes. However, data published by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which shows the inflation rates at the time of each president’s inauguration and the corresponding rates one year later, marks Tinubu’s first year as the worst.

OVERALL INFLATION RATES – ONE YEAR AFTER NEW GOVT

Early this week, Tinubu was in Lagos to flag off the controversial Lagos – Calabar Coastal Highway, and to open some rehabilitated sections of the Third Mainland Bridge, a move widely described as a shame created by his wasted one year in office.

“The President today will struggle to point to one clear, tangible and significant accomplishment of his administration in 12 months after the record budgets and spending,” Aja said.

One of Tinubu’s greatest undoing is said to his towing of the path of Buhari by running ethnocentric government and surrounding himself with those who sing the songs pleasing to his ears.

“The President’s error has been to govern as if he won a 90% landslide. He has listened to the political side of his kitchen cabinet and created a self-echoing administration seeking foes, not economic wins,” Aja added.