As an undergraduate in FUT Owerri, I did basic politics as a student. I ran and was elected as Director of Research in SEEES, and during that time, we had a fully functional radio station, which covered the whole campus and the village. Of course, the Vice Chancellor one day summoned me that he got a report from Abuja that Abacha would like it closed! Immediately, we complied.
Then in my final year, I worked as one of the students who reviewed the Students Union Constitution, strengthening it in the process. In those experiences, I noticed one thing: to a large extent, voters do not hold grudges if their candidates’ lose in a FREE and FAIR election. Once it is transparent, everyone seems to move on quickly.
That takes me to the importation of Western style democracy into Africa. I think the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union did poor jobs, despite their good intentions. Yes, if democracy advanced them, it was fair to export it for others to use.
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But during the export, they invested more on “democracy” than the process to democracy, making it possible for sham elections to be called part of a democratic system.
You see clear manipulations, cheating, etc and because some humans were seen putting papers in a bag, someone will say “that is democracy, accept the results”. Unfortunately, across most parts of Africa, the citizens are awakened, and are now tired because the outcomes of those elections do not reflect their wills. That is what is happening in Gabon and most African countries where jamborees happen and one crazy man would be installed as a president in a hugely faulty electoral process.
I believe that Africa’s redemption will go through democratic paths. But what I do not support is the outcome that any election, irrespective of how defective it is, should be seen as a validation of a democratic system. If the US, UK and EU want to help Africa deepen its democracy, they need to pay attention to the process.
I listened to BBC Newshour today by Julian Marshall, and one of his guests from the Chatham House Africa program was blunt: things are changing. The problem, unfortunately, is that the military is picking the signals, and that is changing the dynamics. That explains the huge jubilations after the coups. And those come with a clear message: if you want us to practice democracy, make sure our votes will count, otherwise, do not preach democracy.
Solution? “Invest” in the PROCESS to boost the confidence of the OUTCOME. When people rig and over time you normalize, you give them signals to rig in the near future
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All these things happening within Africa, what are they telling Nigeria and Nigerians? Do we really think we are immune to chaos? It is hard to predict people’s reactions when there’s no trust in the system, so we have to be very careful in the weeks and months ahead.
We still have a pending judgment on the presidential election held here, can the judgement be such that whoever hears or reads can say, well, well, well, the ruling makes sense? If you bring what is alien to our laws here and give judgment based on it, bad things could happen. If it will take recounting the votes, can the judges rule on that, so that those who have doubts can see that they actually lost or won?
We don’t need to make everything look like we are running a secret cult here, we are dealing with humans who have diverse range of emotions and who can also think. Counting 1 2 3 should not be so complex, because numbers don’t lie, they are practical and everyone can see where they finished.
We have to learn very fast, with the small window we still have, but if we are so blind and arrogant to see the signs, we may end up having more than we bargained for.
Others are having bloodless coups, but you cannot guarantee anything in Nigeria’s case, be guided.