The United States Congress approved an ordinance requiring ByteDance, the Chinese parent company of TikTok, to sever ties with TikTok USA, or lose access to app stores and web-hosting services in the U.S. President Biden signed the bill into law, and everything should kick in from Jan 19, if ByteDance does not dance to the tune dictated by the American law.
The law included a provision which will give ByteDance an extra 90 days to conclude a deal, if a deal had been started before Jan 19. TikTok USA has challenged the law, focusing on the US Constitution on freedom of speech and things like that. But so far, it has lost the battles in the courts, including one in the Appeal Court.
As I have noted, lawyers chicken out when the state uses “national security” to make a call. In other words, no one should expect judges to go against the US Congress when the lawmakers have brought national security into the equation. Simply, TikTok is likely going to lose in the Supreme Court if the theatre moves there.
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And if that happens, and no deal is on sight before Jan 20, 2025, what then happens on that morning? Possibly, Apple and Android stores will take down the TikTok app. Also, from payment systems to plugins, most vendors will disconnect from TikTok. As that happens, a major trending topic, instead of the second ascension of Trump to the presidency, will break: “my TikTok account is not working well”. Why must it be on the day Trump took over power?
But here is the deal: Trump won the presidency through citizen journalism of influencers and digital crusaders, with many of them in TikTok. If they lose TikTok, many will feel bad, and that will be a win for the established media which packaged to us that Russians were fighting Ukrainians with shovels.
You can also add Facebook’s Meta, going all the way: “Meta Platforms Inc., the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and Threads, extended its remarkable rally on Friday, rising 2.4% to close at a record high. This latest surge came after a federal appeals court upheld a U.S. law mandating that TikTok’s Chinese parent company, ByteDance, sell the app or face an effective ban”. Simply, Facebook’s Meta which will see a key competitor disappear and will smile to the bank.
Jan 20 promises change, and the TikTok Nation will have a really big one. You may not appreciate the scale until you realize that many companies see the platform as the “marketplace”. For Trump, on his desk, he will see “keep their TikTok” or “uphold the law”, and will likely ask “why did they put everything to kick-in on Jan 20?” When all is done, he will punt: a cosmetic deal will happen and everyone will move on.
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