I was in Ovim in Dec 2019 and some members of my age grade came and said that I should run for Governor. They wanted YES from me.At that time, my family had received an infrastructure award from the community for some small community projects.
I made it back to US. Some elders in Abia State reached out and said they would honour me with an award. They named me the Abia of the Year in Diaspora in a big ceremony in the state chaired by the governor (aku ruo olu). Yes, the guy who went to America and has not forgotten his ancestral home. Even the Bishop (Methodist) was very happy.
Then here on LinkedIn, more than five people wanted to buy the Abia governorship form. I told them to calm down – Ndubuisi Ekekwe has change to buy any form, including the N100 million one. The problem is not the form but the STRUCTURES.
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Yes, the structures. In the Southeast, you have an 87% chance to be elected governor if you have the support of the current governor. I provided the math and how even at his post-CBN peak, Soludo could not break through in Anambra until he was anointed. For me, 13% chance was too low to invest my time and resources; I am a math guy.
So, as we look at this table, remember STRUCTURES for the next cycle. In Abia, the PDP primaries for governorship was so convoluted that the highest elected PDP official in Nigeria (as minority leader in Senate) was cut-off. Senator Abaribe left the party. What happened? STRUCTURES.
Nigerian democracy can only attract the “other forces” when all primaries are OPEN and DIRECT and that means the party members, not the delegates, will determine the party flagbearers as they do in the US. Today, the delegates control 90% of the permutations with the general election impactful just 10%. OPEN primaries must be enshrined in the constitution if we hope for a more open democracy in Nigeria!
So, as we look at this table, remember STRUCTURES. One way to fix? OPEN primaries so that party members, not delegates, will decide the party flagbearers as they do in US.
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They said that direct primary is too expensive, but the same people who said it have billion of naira and millions of dollars to share to delegates, yet we are expected to take them seriously. Who are really with us and who are against us? It is not clear, because the very people here who claim to abhor bad things vehemently support and defend bad things; it tells you the quality of humans we produce.
Since power is not given but rather captured, if those who claim to want something different are big enough to capture power, then they should step up and do the needful.
How again do you show politicians that you don’t like the direction they are going if not by voting differently? So that whenever they want to choose a candidate, they will first conduct large scale surveys and opinion polls, to be sure that the people they claim to serve are with them. Most of our people still don’t know what they want from their political leaders, so until they can resolve that, they will keep backing the same people they loath.
I am looking forward to a debate involving Tinubu, Atiku and Obi, let’s hear what each of them has and how they plan to tackle the myriads of problems in the land. Can we cut cost of governance and make it unattractive?