The Nigeria’s 4.1% Unemployment Rate

Now I can comment on it, since no department of statistics in any Nigerian university was bold enough to tell the National Bureau of Statistics that its methodologies and processes are faulty: “The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Nigeria’s unemployment rate decreased to 4.1 percent during the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, down from the previous quarter’s 5.3 percent.”

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Nigeria’s unemployment rate decreased to 4.1 percent during the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, down from the previous quarter’s 5.3 percent.

Back in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2020, the bureau reported the country’s unemployment rate to be 33.3 percent.

In a statement released on Thursday, the NBS announced that the recent unemployment report employed a new methodology and provided a comprehensive examination of the labor market.

“The latest Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS) report sheds light on the dynamics of labor market within the country,” the statement reads.

Yes, with all secondary and primary indicators, Nigeria’s unemployment rate is not 4.1%. The NBS assessment is so untrue that it has the potential to give the government wrong signals as it works on policies designed to create jobs. Yes, if the unemployment rate is that low, why bother with efforts to create new jobs?

Good People, I understand that many people here will not agree with me. And please my intention is not to discredit any government or agency. Simply, I do think that we Nigerians must be friendly with data, if we hope to advance. If anyone tells you that out of 100 people in Nigeria actively looking for jobs, that 95 people are employed and only 5 cannot find jobs, tell him or her that the core thesis of making that call is faulty.

Comment on Feed

Comment 1: Ndubuisi Ekekwe thanks for writing about this. Its mind-boggling that the statistical agency of country with :
1) the highest # of persons living in poverty on earth :
2) mass exodus of its youth; probably africa’s largest exodus; and
3) rampaging hunger that is fueling insecurity;would put out a report that suggests that we have 4% unemployment.
Is this not a deliberate attempt to mislead those who are responsible for the economy that all is well?

Comment 2: Even to a lay man on the street, it is clear that the call made by NBS on the employment numbers is faulty. This is not about targeting the performance of an administration, we are simply saying, this data is not correct and as Nigerians, we deserve accurate statistics from NBS. Do not Confuse us the more!

Comment 3: Unless you are blinded by politics that report of 4% unemployment was outrageous. Whatever the basis we know that unemployment rate is in the two digits in Nigeria. Most times I choose not to comment on our socio economic realities. The President at least needs the right figures to help in formulation of policies that would help to resolve the issues.

Comment 4: I do not believe any informed mind will subscribe to such fundamentally flawed statistics. Those putting data out there for public consumption should be meticulous enough to produce accurate data that is reflective of the exact situation. Unemployment in Nigeria is in unfortunate and uncomfortable double figures at the moment. While it remains in the best interest of all citizens and government to achieve such audacious statistics, the current unemployment rate is far away from such enviable percentage. Accuracy of data can lead to better policies and budget planning.  hashtag#truestatistics  always win.

Comment 5: These Individuals are so self-assured that they appeared on television to uphold their assertions. Unless Nigerians start scrutinizing all the procedures used by different government organizations, they will persist in using faulty data and providing us with inaccurate information. This, in turn, will affect policy creation and decision-making and impede economic growth.

Comment 6: Ndubuisi Ekekwe I think our media still has a lot to do. This is a very good example of a national matter that affect every single person in Nigeria. In other developed and serious economies, the Director of that agencies will have been bombard with numerous questions as to how 4.1% was arrived at. At minimum, the head of the agency will vet this data before they are churn out.

Nigeria is on the negative side of the number line. We need to get to point zero and start growing every part of the country.

My Response: The challenge is that if you say 4% is not realistic, people will ask you to go and do your own research before you can challenge the government. Because few can afford to do a nationwide study, no one wants to talk. That is the position of Samuel , reading his comment where he wrote: “destructive criticism. What is the basis of your conclusions?”

As I write, many will say that I am unfair to the agency since I have not done any study to disqualify their results. Of course, if that is the yardstick, it means the media people cannot question anything.

Upon that strategy, even the media cannot talk. That is why an agency can say that Nigeria is largely at full employment because no one has any hard data to challenge it. With that pattern, you have alternative facts. Even JP Morgan cannot escape that. It is not new, it has been like that for decades in Nigeria.

Comment 6R: I agree with you prof. Profoundly, I think people with that perspective have forgotten that there is a wide difference between criticism and critique. And I think the gap between these two concept is what our media houses should fill. The media is our collective mouthpiece.

You are 100% correct sir. Media should have finished this agencies with challenging and probing question to bring a public knowledge of the thought process that gave us derivative of 4.1%.

Comment 6R2: The media people are journalists by career. They do not have the academic background for researches in these areas – science, economics, financial, etc.

My Response: Most journalists are trained professionals in certain domains before they take to writing. BusinessDay editorTayo Fagbule is an economist. Their former editorial executive holds a PhD in the social sciences. Helen Joyce studied mathematics but moved to journalism. My point is that it is not lack of academic background that is the issue, it is largely doing all NOT to offend in Nigeria. More so, most reputation media houses have external experts on certain domains.

One of the main challenges in Nigeria is sycophancy. Can NBS tell the people when they started using whatever metrics they employed to dish out their numbers on unemployment or it’s more important to them to appease their pay masters?

— Chukwunedum Ekwenibe (@MiriEnweIlo) August 27, 2023

Nigeria’s Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.1% in Q1 2023 – NBS

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