The cloud is still gathering. Do not be carried away or troubled. This election would be decided by the Southwest because that is the battleground swing geopolitical zone. The northern part of the nation will split between PDP (Atiku) and APC (Tinubu) with Peter Obi getting some decent numbers, mainly from the major cities and Northcentral. Obi has a great chance in Taraba, Nasarawa and Plateau states. In Southsouth and Southeast, Obi will outperform.
The big issue is what happens in Southwest. I expect Tinubu to build a moat in order to defend his home territory. He has the biggest challenge for the top 3 because APC is the ruling party, and you hardly see any car in Lagos with those old stickers – “This car stops in all parties” – since parties have disappeared with the economy.
Atiku needs Southsouth badly and that is why Wike is a king now.
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Again, there are many Undecided and Refused in the sample – and of course, elections in Nigeria cannot be modeled. But I tell you one thing – this is one of the most OPEN elections since 1999, and if INEC keeps it clean, surprises will happen.
APC and PDP have dismissed this poll. Sure, nothing to worry about right now but they must not just dismiss it. When they begin interviews by first talking about Obi, they do not help their missions.
And finally, in 2019, NOI called it for Buhari: “Buhari Leads, but his lead is not unassailable because Atiku has momentum and may appeal more to Undecided voters”.
Buharis lead is sizeable but not unassailable because the largest concentration of Undecided voters reside in the South East Zone, where he is weakest. Voter turnout can also make a big difference on the day, especially if there is considerable disparity in turnout figures across the geopolitical zones. Buhari was always in the race as the front-runner. Atiku started from zero and has momentum on his side. Given the size of the Undecided vote and its unique and concentration in the 3 Southern geopolitical zones and the North Central Zone, Anap Foundation has concluded that the final outcome is deemed to be too close to call.
This polling company has made great calls in the past and was on the money.
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Nigeria was not built on facts, and an average Nigerian abhors data, let alone accuracy of it. If you tell them that Nigeria is broke, they will tell you that it’s not true, that politicians are stealing everything. Ask them to provide data and where that humongous money is residing, they start pointing out paltry sums that were reported stolen, as if putting all of them together amount to something truly big in the grand scheme of things.
Nigerians will tell you that Aliko Dangote is not the richest Nigerian, ask them to point the richest and where their holdings are, they begin to stutter. It’s a country where average citizen believes that government can sponsor free university education for all Nigerians, make the universities world-class, and still pay the professors handsomely. Fantasy and Nigerians are one and the same.
So, how do you expect a party whose candidate is not leading the poll not to term it fake? If you ask for proof, they move the goalpost. But if their candidates were leading the poll, of course it becomes the most credible poll! There are too many fake people in the land, what is not clear is whether they are aware that they are fake.
We hate numbers, just muddle things up and bamboozle people. Wonderment
A Big Thumbs-Up with the poll. It indeed points to the fact that Nigerians are ready to take the bulls by the horn and decide for their future after 8 years of unprecedented torment by the ruling party. the decision now lies with INEC to ensure a free and fair election. I actually think that if this election is free and fair, then that poll would be an total understatement to what would actually happen. If Presido wants to leave a positive legacy that would make up for the incompetence of his 8 years of administration, he must ensure the election is free and fair. If he ensures that, nobody would remember the errors of his administration. The ball lies in both the Presido and INEC’s court.