From Condia newsletter: “Nigeria’s telecom industry continues facing tough times. The average revenue per user (ARPU) for major telcos like MTN and Airtel has plummeted by over 40% in the past year. MTN Nigeria, once the MTN Group’s top-performing market with a $5.03 ARPU in Q1 2023, has seen its user revenue fall with an ARPU of $2.09 by Q3 2024. Similarly, Airtel Nigeria, which was the second-highest-earning market across Airtel Africa’s 14-country operations with a $3 ARPU, has fallen to $1.60 ARPU.”
ARPU is a gold standard metric in telecoms just like cost-to-income ratio is for banking. When ARPU begins to crash, most times, investments stall. In other words, why waste money on customers who may not even afford the services? That is partly the reason why banks do not expand to most rural areas in Nigeria as making money from the “poor” is tough (using poor with respect there). The ARPU numbers from Nigeria will affect how MTN and Airtel will operate in Africa.
First, they will increasingly go the fintech model (like mobile money, insurance, etc) where the margins remain strong. And over time, they will try to use the space, through partnership with satellite providers, as most may not have the resources to expand via a terrestrial model: “MTN, Africa’s largest telecom operator, is exploring partnerships with Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) satellite providers to expand its internet reach…”
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Simply, if ARPU is crashing and they are losing money, do not expect telcos to deploy more investment dollars. But through partnerships with satellite providers, they can hang on there even though over time, they will have real challenges from some of those providers like SpaceX Starlink.
Good People, what are you doing as your customers become poorer in Nigeria? Are you changing your business model? Are you striking partnerships to reduce your fixed costs and improve your marginal cost to keep serving them? Put on your thinking cap and learn how MTN and others are evolving
For Tekedia Mini-MBA learners, we have posted the written materials from Dr Abel Osuji from Afreximbank on how SMEs can make changes and thrive even though a period of economic perturbation. The course video of yesterday is already posted in the course board. Take time and study his suggestions and plot new strategic paths to thrive. Good luck.
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The telcos’ challenge isn’t for lack of foresight or innovation, but a case of political regime change that had no clue about how national currencies work, so it ended up destroying its own currency. With naira destroyed, the major businesses suddenly found themselves in the negative column. And rather than allowing telcos to review tariffs, the political (not economic) argument posits that consumers cannot bear price increase. The unanswered question remains, how does serving poor people with eroding margins make them richer or economically stable? Nobody has attempted an answer, because it would require some intellectual rigour and then expose the flawed thinking that is currently prevailing.
You cannot stabilize an industry by keeping everyone on the ground, which is the current practice. Instead you allow operators to price at what would account for the battered state of the naira, which in turn makes the argument for improved service and more investment a viable and credible one. Neither Starlink nor any other satellite provider can serve profitably at the current tariff regime the telcos are subjected to. Economic decisions cannot be on sentimental basis, else you end up grounding everything.
We are failing, and very fast.