The ECOWAS’s Options in Nigeria Are Carrots and Dialogues with Some Sticks

In the Igbo Nation, the wise ones will say “Mberede ka eji ama dike’ [great people are known when they’re confronted with unforeseen challenges]. In ECOWAS history, what the  Niger military junta has done is common if you recall how Yahya of Gambia  packed out when they dropped a minor threat. During Abacha time,  he was the ECOWAS, as he locked up military khaki boys in cells when they rejected his instructions. After he dealt with them, they saluted and delivered as expected.

But time has changed. Yes, Niger can go against Nigeria and ECOWAS because you know what: that is the spirit of democracy which Nigeria is “practicing”. With the Nigerian Senate voting down any military participating from Nigeria, the options are largely limited to carrots and dialogues with some sticks. We do not expect any military mobilization – and that is a good outcome. ECOWAS will meet on Thursday: “The notice of the meeting, which is to be held in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital, on August 10, was sent on Monday by Tinubu, who doubles as the chairman of ECOWAS.”

I call on Nigeria and the broad ECOWAS to swallow any pride. We will all forget in days. But what we will not forget is turning the Niger Republic into another Syria with some parts for Russia, and some for the West.  I have already shared my plan on how we can go about this here. 

Call a meeting of the African Development Bank, African Export-Import Bank, economic ministers of ECOWAS countries and partners of ECOWAS, and work out a regional sovereign guarantee (RSG) package of $5 billion for Niger Republic. That is about the national budget of the country.

Then open an Africa-wide investment opportunity window for Niger, guaranteeing 50% of every investment into Niger Republic in the next three years. Areas to be covered include education, agriculture, healthcare, and related areas. At least 25% of the RSG should go to Niger-native companies.

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Comment 1: Niger is bigger than Nigeria, so what is exactly this misguided notion that ECOWAS military is capable of dislodging a junta that captured power, largely supported by the local population? How many military personnel can you muster exactly and what would be the instruction? Let this whole embarrassment stop now, because they will be defeated, if they ever enter Niger, the politicians asking for military intervention obviously don’t know what taking war to another’s soil entails.

Gambia was a different case, it was a civilian regime that went rogue, in a very tiny country. If you superimpose the whole of Nigeria into Niger, it will swallow it and still have spaces, yet we are dreaming of invasion and dislodging, this is not a movie scene.

In another one week, we will be done with this Niger thing, nobody will attack or remove anyone, because the odds are heavily against the proponents, they do not stand a chance.

There’s no democracy in West Africa, so let this noise about restoring democracy cease, we never had one.

It is an aberration for fraudulent people to give sermons on rule of law, the very thing they never respected in their home domains. Funny creatures everywhere.

Comment 2: Ndubuisi Ekekwe I enjoyed this piece but down to the last part, I have a reserve. Niger won’t just be turned to Syria, and parts of it for Russia and the West, but the whole west African states will be in a turmoil like never seen before, worse than Africa ever experienced in the previous world wars.

Because it will be a war amongst nations. Like I said earlier, it will gradually spill over, it definitely cannot be contained in Niger alone. They will have no restrictions to attack opposition nations in a bid to weaken their morale. I maintain my stance, that Africa should always rather seek the path of pure brotherhood and friendship because if they create enmities for themselves, there will be no victor.

Comment 3: Any discerning mind can see through Tinubu’s smoke screen. Tinubu, having failed miserably on the home front in just three months of taking office, with his economy in complete mess – Petrol up 300%, inflation out of the charts, USD/NGN shooting for the skies, productive businesses packing up, is desperate for any distraction whatsoever from his economic woes and what a timely gift this Niger drama offers. How ironic that a complete outsider, who would not cry for his own people, is crying more than the bereaved!

Now, Niger has assembled a solid military coalition with Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali. In addition, Niger’s military rulers have enlisted support from Russian Wagner mercenary group. Let’s face it, everyone knows that Nigeria’s corrupt military – the same military that could not contain Boko haram – instead resorting to settling with cash, nor bring back the kidnapped girls, nor even feed or provide necessary gear and logistical support for its military, is not in any position to face the Niger Military alliance and Russia’s Wagner. Look very well, the only ones beating war drums are the greedy vultures who are already salivating at the money to be made. That’s just the way it is.

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