Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, has downplayed expectations of significant advancements in generative AI by 2025, describing the industry as having moved past its “low-hanging fruit” and now facing steeper challenges.
Speaking at the New York Times DealBook Summit, Pichai argued that while incremental improvements will continue, transformative breakthroughs are unlikely to occur in the near term. However, his assertion stands in stark contrast to the unprecedented levels of investment and innovation currently reshaping the AI industry.
“When I look at [2025], the low-hanging fruit is gone,” Pichai stated. “The hill is steeper … You’re definitely going to need deeper breakthroughs as we get to the next stage.”
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Innovations Challenge the “Incremental Progress” Narrative
Pichai emphasized that the current focus is on improving reasoning capabilities and reliability in generative AI models, such as Google’s Gemini, OpenAI’s ChatGPT, and Meta’s Llama. While these enhancements may seem incremental, recent innovations challenge the idea that breakthroughs are slowing down.
For example, OpenAI recently unveiled GPT-4 Turbo, a significantly more efficient version of its flagship language model, enabling faster and more cost-effective AI deployment. Similarly, Google’s Gemini has integrated advanced multimodal capabilities, combining text, image, and video understanding in ways that push the boundaries of current AI applications.
AI is also expanding into specialized fields. Healthcare companies are leveraging generative AI to revolutionize drug discovery, while financial institutions use AI-driven models for fraud detection and risk assessment. Autonomous vehicle developers like Tesla and Waymo continue to refine AI systems, aiming for breakthroughs that could redefine transportation.
Industry Leaders Disagree
Pichai’s measured stance contrasts sharply with the optimism of other industry leaders. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has dismissed claims of stagnation, asserting on social media platform X that “there is no wall” to innovation. Altman’s remarks followed reports suggesting that OpenAI’s latest models, while more advanced, represented only incremental improvements over previous versions.
Similarly, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has highlighted the non-linear nature of technological revolutions, noting that industries often experience periods of slow growth before dramatic acceleration.
“Seventy years of the Industrial Revolution, there wasn’t much industry growth, and then it took off … it’s never going to be linear,” Nadella said at the 2024 Fast Company Innovation Festival.
The influx of funding and innovation is creating new opportunities across industries. AI is increasingly accessible to non-experts, enabling millions to engage with technologies like coding and automation. Pichai himself acknowledged this potential, predicting that “10 years from now, [computer programming] will be accessible to millions more people.”
Moreover, AI is reshaping the labor market. High-paying roles such as AI trainers and prompt engineers are becoming more common, with average salaries exceeding $64,000 and $110,000, respectively, according to ZipRecruiter. These roles highlight the tangible economic impact of AI investments, even as companies continue to explore ways to monetize the technology effectively.
AI Investment Surge Too
While Pichai foresees a phase of gradual refinement, record-breaking investments in AI across industries suggest that many stakeholders believe the technology is still in its early stages of transformative potential.
The AI sector continues to attract massive funding from corporations and governments. Microsoft, for example, has invested $13 billion in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, to integrate its generative AI capabilities into its products, including Microsoft 365. Similarly, Amazon recently pledged up to $4 billion in a partnership with AI startup Anthropic, underlining its belief in the technology’s untapped potential.
Governments, too, are placing big bets on AI. The European Union has announced a €1 billion annual fund to support AI research and development, while China has committed to becoming a global leader in AI by 2030, allocating billions to state-backed projects and private-sector initiatives.
Startups are also thriving, with venture capital firms pouring billions into AI-driven companies. According to CB Insights, global funding for AI startups reached $26.6 billion in Q3 2024 alone, a testament to investor confidence in the sector’s growth trajectory.
While Pichai’s caution about the immediate future of AI highlights the challenges of achieving deeper breakthroughs, the sustained momentum in investment and innovation suggests a more optimistic trajectory.