From opinionated to scientific formats, people and organisations have expressed their views about the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria. The views have attracted and still attracting mixed reactions across the country. Like what our analyst said in one of the previous pieces on the place of opinion polls in shaping voters’ decisions or choice during the election, in this piece, he takes a look at the recent results of the polls conducted by the NOI Polls, which was commissioned by the Anap Foundation, and concludes that all the candidates remain floating signifiers. Both organizations are non-governmental organizations that seek to generate research-based evidence for policymakers, businesses, and individuals in order to promote sustainable governance and development in Nigeria and other African countries.
NOI Polls conducted its most recent polls using a question that was similar to the one used in earlier polls to gauge public opinion about the presidential, governorship, local government, and by-elections; suppose the presidential election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for? The Labour Party’s presidential candidate, Mr. Peter Obi, is placed ahead of other strong contenders, according to a statement from the Anap Foundation.
“While this Poll result shows some significant trends, it is key to note that the battle ahead lies in the hands of the undecided/swing voters as they would ultimately decide which candidate takes the lead to emerge as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential elections.
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“It is worthy of note that 73% of those aged 18-25, 82% of those aged 26-35, 85% of those aged 36-45, 86% of those aged 46-60 and 82% of those aged 61+ responded that they would definitely vote in the coming elections. The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 36-45 and 46-60 years.
Furthermore, the data summarizes the top five reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections, these include: – The need to tackle insecurity (35%), Economy (26%), Unemployment (10%), Poverty alleviation (7%) and Education (6%).”
Anap Foundation & NOI Polls and Our Approach
These outcomes are based on 1, 000 respondents against previous polls conducted before December, which had 2, 000 and 3,000 respondents. Though the foundation notes that the difference in the results was not statistically significant, our analyst notes that there is a need to compare the results, which were primarily derived from “small” data collected via survey, with public searches conducted via the Internet. The searches provide us with large amounts of data from people who were interested in learning more about the candidates and understanding their manifestos between September 28 and December 21, 2022.
One of the most compelling reasons for using “big data polls” is the ongoing debate about how technology has reshaped how information flows during the Nigerian election cycle. In other words, through the use of the Internet, people can gain access to a variety of information about how parties, candidates, and other stakeholders are performing, allowing them to make better decisions or choices. Considering this position, as well as the NOI Polls’ observation that a high percentage of participants were of youth age, our analyst concludes that those participants sought information about the candidates and their programmes. As a result, public searches as “big data polls” cannot be ruled out in predicting public voting behaviour ahead of the election.
NOI Polls notes in its documentation of poll limitations that 29% and 23% of respondents were undecided and refused to answer the main question, respectively. According to our analyst, this indicates that using the results with caution is necessary because 48% of the sampled 1,000 respondents is insufficient to draw appropriate conclusions about who will be elected or not. The limitation of the “big data polls” is that Google Trends counts search twice. For example, if a user searches one of the candidates several times, the tool continues to add it up to reach the required threshold of (0-100). As a result, it is possible for one person to conduct multiple searches rather than just one while seeking information about the candidates.
Our main data source, Google Trends, offers several formats that allow for the normalization of public search interests over a given period of time. As previously mentioned, our analyst gathered the searches using all categories, campaigns and elections formats between September 28 and December 21, 2022. The tool’s all categories serve as a conduit for all public searches related to all facets of socioeconomic and political life, while the campaigns and elections format is specifically designed to gather public interest in political campaigns and the complexities of Nigerian elections.
The Key Results
Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, was the most searched candidate month after month, according to a month-by-month analysis in all categories format. This indicates that as the campaign progressed, the public became more interested in understanding him and his programmes in relation to various issues. Mr Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate, was close behind him, with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in third place (see Exhibit 1). When our analyst compared this result to the Anap Foundation & NOI Polls’ results, he discovers that “Big data polls” favour all candidates more than the two organizations’ polls (see Exhibit 2). However, minor differences in campaign and election formats were discovered for APC, LP, and PDP candidates, while a significant difference was discovered for the NNPP candidate (see Exhibit 3).
Our analyst discovers some states where no searches were made within campaigns and elections format about the candidates between September 28 and December 21, 2022, similar to the undecided and those who refused to mention candidate they would vote for during the election in Anap Foundation & NOI Polls’ survey. Abia, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Jigawa, Kano, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, and Zamfara are the states (see Exhibit 4).
Exhibit 1: Public interest in the candidates within all categories of information on the Internet
Exhibit 2: Public interest in the candidates within all categories of information on the Internet versus Anap Foundation & NOI Polls’ results
Exhibit 3: Public interest in the candidates within campaigns and elections’ information on the Internet versus Anap Foundation & NOI Polls’ results
Exhibit 4: Candidates’ state dominance within campaigns and elections’ information according to public interest
From the results of the two polls, it is obvious that technology will play a larger role in voters’ decisions and choices than physical channels of communication, especially among young people who use the Internet the most. Also, it is clear that undecided voters and refusers could be found on the two polling types, indicating a challenging task for the political actors in the run-up to the election.