Time to review those predictions on recent policies:
1. Nigeria floats its currency.
My response: “Nigeria’s floating of its currency, while progressive, will cause severe perturbations in the economy – and a stable state may not come as most experts have predicted” – Ndubuisi Ekekwe, June 2023.
Remark: my postulation remains correct as that policy continues to alter the equilibrium points on many things, at family, state and national levels. Net welfare status is LOSS for most citizens.
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2. JP Morgan projects that Naira will settle at N600/$ post-float.
My response: ‘“My perspective: I think JP Morgan may need to review. Whether you float, swim or fly Naira, Naira can only survive if the economy is productive with capacity to produce things (digital, physical, service, etc) to reposition the nation’s balance of payment and trade.”’ – Ndubuisi Ekekwe, June 2023, in a piece titled “Why JP Morgan’s Call on High N600s per US$ Stable State for Naira May Not Happen”.
Remark: Against all the leading global banks and our central bank which projected a stable state of around N700/$1, I am correct since the Naira is about N1,500/$ now.
3. Removal of Fuel Subsidy
My Response: “Nigeria will either pause the full floating of its currency or return back to fuel subsidy” because running both at the same will impoverish millions of citizens – Ndubuisi Ekekwe, July 2023.
Remark: even though the official unemployment rate (5.3%) is better than the rates in Germany and Canada, the government agency also noted that more citizens have moved into poverty, making their analysis illogical.
What was your prediction and how is that playing with reality so far? We have enough data now to evaluate.
It all depends on what you understand as the meaning of “progressive”. Progressive is not a synonym of “positive”. In my context, it is simply gradually moving step by step which every government in Nigeria has been hoping to do. But even as I understand that it is…
— Ndubuisi Ekekwe (@ndekekwe) September 29, 2024
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