Nigeria’s inflation rate declined to 23.18% in February 2025, marking a slight drop from the 24.1% recorded in January 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The agency’s report comes after a major overhaul of its methodology, changing the reference year to 2024 in an attempt to provide a more accurate reflection of inflationary pressures.

The NBS report states that the February 2025 headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 1.30% compared to January 2025 and that inflation on a year-on-year basis was 8.52% lower than in February 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the agency recorded inflation at 2.04% in February 2025.

However, a large number of Nigerians are skeptical of the latest figures, arguing that the reality on the ground tells a different story. Many believe the government is pressuring the NBS to paint a more favorable picture of the economy, even as food and basic necessities continue to become more expensive.

Food prices, transportation costs, and utility bills have continued to rise, making it difficult for people to believe the claim that inflation is slowing down.

The situation has fueled suspicions that the government is influencing the NBS to manipulate inflation data to create an illusion of economic stability. Critics argue that while the official figures may suggest inflation is easing, the purchasing power of Nigerians tells a different story.

One of the most telling signs that inflation remains a major problem is the fact that Nigerians continue to spend more than half of their earnings on food. This is a sharp contrast to the reported decline in inflation, as food prices remain high, and in some cases, continue to increase.

“Nigerians have spent more on food in 2024 than in any other year in the last decade. In June 2024, PricePally sold a basket (50kg) of Grade-A tomatoes at N112,000. This was a new record, surpassing the peak price of N100,000 seen in 2023,” Stew Index Report noted.

Many believe that nothing has changed in the first few months of the year. According to the NBS report, food inflation stood at 23.51% year-on-year in February 2025, reflecting a 14.41 percentage point drop from the 37.92% recorded in February 2024. The agency attributes this decline largely to its revised inflation measurement, but Nigerians argue that food prices remain unaffordable.

Experts also caution against taking the latest inflation report at face value. They note that what we are seeing is a situation where inflation is still high, just growing at a slightly slower rate. But in real terms, Nigerians are still spending more on food, transportation, and basic goods.

Urban vs. Rural Inflation

The NBS report also highlighted differences in urban and rural inflation. It stated that urban inflation stood at 25.15% in February 2025, a decline from 33.66% recorded in February 2024. Rural inflation was reported at 19.89%, marking a decrease from 29.99% in the same period last year.

Despite these figures, residents in both urban and rural areas report continued hardship. In rural communities, rising transportation costs and supply chain disruptions have made staple foods more expensive. In urban centers, the cost of rent, electricity, and other essentials has remained high, squeezing household budgets.

Government Under Pressure

The Nigerian government has faced increasing pressure to address the economic crisis, particularly as the naira continues to depreciate and household incomes shrink. While the government has blamed external factors such as global inflation and currency fluctuations, it is believed that poor policy decisions, including the removal of fuel subsidies and high interest rates, have worsened the situation.

The Tinubu administration has defended its economic policies, arguing that reforms take time to yield results. However, with inflation still straining household budgets, public trust in government statistics continues to erode.

Nigeria’s total debt service payments declined significantly from $540 million in January 2025 to $276 million in February 2025, according to newly released data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The drop comes as the federal government intensifies efforts to restructure its debt portfolio, improve dollar liquidity, and ease pressure on the foreign exchange market.

The figures, published on the CBN’s website, highlight the increasing burden of debt obligations on Nigeria’s external reserves and overall fiscal sustainability. Analysts believe that recent negotiations with multilateral lenders and deferred debt repayments may have contributed to the lower outflows for the month.

However, concerns persist over the government’s continued reliance on borrowing to fund its budget, with economists warning that increased borrowing could erode any gains made in debt service reduction.

Nigeria’s debt crisis has been a major source of concern, with debt service obligations consuming a significant portion of government revenue. President Bola Tinubu recently claimed that his administration has reduced Nigeria’s revenue-to-debt service ratio from 97% to 65% in 17 months. While this suggests an improvement, Nigeria’s debt obligations still account for a large share of its earnings, limiting resources available for infrastructure development and social programs.

The federal government has been engaging with global lenders such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to explore ways to restructure its debt and reduce repayment pressure. However, despite the government’s debt management strategies, Nigeria’s total debt stock continues to rise, raising concerns that the country is merely postponing financial distress rather than resolving it.

Surge in Trade Financing Through Letters of Credit

While debt service payments declined, the CBN reported a sharp rise in Letters of Credit (LCs), indicating increased financing of trade transactions. In February 2025, LCs issued totaled $95.6 million, reflecting a 48% increase from $64.6 million in January 2025.

The increase suggests a rebound in import-related activities, as businesses adjust to fluctuating exchange rates and government policies aimed at stabilizing trade financing. However, with Nigeria’s dependence on imported goods, this rise in trade financing could further strain foreign reserves, especially if oil revenues fail to keep pace with growing forex demand.

The government’s strategy to stabilize Nigeria’s foreign reserves while managing debt repayment obligations remains a delicate balancing act. The CBN’s recent monetary policy measures, including higher interest rates and tighter forex controls, aim to support the naira and ensure adequate dollar liquidity for external obligations.

However, debt service payments remain a major concern. According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s debt service payments surged by 69% in the first half of 2024, reaching N6.04 trillion, up from N3.58 trillion in the same period of 2023. The sharp increase was largely driven by the devaluation of the naira, which made foreign debt repayments more expensive.

Although February’s lower debt service payment figures provide a momentary relief, the government has shown no sign of slowing down borrowing. The federal government recently secured new loans from both local and international creditors, further raising concerns about long-term debt sustainability.

The World Bank has repeatedly warned about the growing debt burden of developing economies, including Nigeria. In a recent statement, Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s Chief Economist, and Senior Vice President, highlighted the risks associated with mounting debt service costs, stressing that they could push countries into financial crises if left unaddressed.

Can Nigeria Sustain Lower Debt Service Payments?

While the drop in February’s debt service payments may appear to be a positive development, it does not necessarily indicate a lasting solution to Nigeria’s debt challenges. The government’s continued reliance on borrowing to fund the budget raises concerns that debt repayments will inevitably rise again in the near future.

To avoid this relapse,  experts suggest that a combination of higher oil revenues, improved tax collection, and strategic debt restructuring could help sustain lower debt service payments.

Harvard University has announced a major expansion of its financial aid program, stating that, beginning in the 2025-26 academic year, it will offer free tuition to students from families earning $200,000 or less annually.

The move significantly broadens the accessibility of one of the world’s most prestigious institutions and ensures that more middle- and low-income students can enroll without financial barriers.

The decision comes amid growing political opposition to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives, particularly under the Trump administration, which has sought to eliminate such programs from higher education institutions. While Harvard’s new policy is framed as an effort to make education more affordable, it also reflects the shifting landscape of college admissions as race-conscious DEI policies come under scrutiny.

Harvard President Alan M. Garber emphasized that expanding financial aid will enrich the university’s student body by welcoming more students from diverse economic backgrounds. He said that putting Harvard within financial reach for more individuals widens the array of backgrounds, experiences, and perspectives that students encounter, fostering intellectual and personal growth.

“By bringing people of outstanding promise together to learn with and from one another, we truly realize the tremendous potential of the University,” he added.

The new policy will allow about 86% of U.S. families to qualify for some form of Harvard financial aid, significantly increasing the number of students eligible for tuition-free education. Additionally, undergraduate students from families with annual incomes of $100,000 or less will receive full coverage for tuition, housing, food, health services, and other student fees.

Harvard’s decision marks a significant shift in its financial aid approach. In the past two decades, the university has gradually raised the income threshold for full financial aid. In 2004, families earning $40,000 or less were eligible for free tuition. The threshold increased to $60,000 in 2006 and then to $85,000 in 2023. Now, in 2025, Harvard has set a record-high threshold of $200,000, making a substantial portion of middle-class families eligible.

Harvard has awarded more than $3.6 billion?in undergraduate financial aid since launching the Harvard Financial Aid Initiative in 2004, according to the university.

About 55% of Harvard undergraduates receive some type of financial aid, according to the university. In the 2023-2024 school year, families of students receiving financial aid paid an average of $15,700 toward education costs, school officials said.

“Our team works closely with each student to ensure full inclusion in the Harvard experience,” said Jake Kaufman, Harvard’s director of financial aid. “The financial aid program is designed so that Harvard students can study, train, research, create, and fully engage in the Harvard experience with minimal constraints.”

The move comes at a time when many families struggle with the rising cost of higher education. Harvard’s annual tuition currently stands at $56,550, but when combined with housing, food, health services, and other fees, the total cost of attendance reaches $82,866 per year. By significantly increasing financial aid, the university is addressing concerns over student debt and college affordability.

“We know the most talented students come from different socioeconomic backgrounds and experiences, from every state and around the globe,” William R. Fitzsimmons, Harvard College’s dean of admissions and financial aid, said in a statement. “Our financial aid is critical to ensuring that these students know Harvard College is a place where they can be part of a vibrant learning community strengthened by their presence and participation.”

A Reprieve As DEI Shutters

DEI programs were designed to address historical disparities in higher education by supporting underrepresented students, particularly Black, Hispanic, Indigenous, and low-income individuals. These initiatives provided financial aid, academic support, and outreach programs to ensure greater access to elite universities for students who historically faced systemic barriers.

Under DEI programs, Harvard and other Ivy League schools implemented policies to increase enrollment from disadvantaged backgrounds. Affirmative action, a key component of DEI, played a significant role in diversifying student populations until the Supreme Court struck it down in 2023. Following this ruling, universities like Harvard faced immense pressure to reform their admissions processes, particularly from conservative groups and Republican lawmakers who argued that race-conscious admissions discriminated against White and Asian students.

The Trump administration has actively pursued policies to defund DEI offices at universities, arguing that they promote “woke ideology” and create racial and ideological divisions on campuses. Several Republican-led states have already banned DEI funding in public universities, and elite private institutions like Harvard have come under scrutiny for their policies.

However, DEI initiatives played a crucial role in supporting economically disadvantaged students at elite universities. These programs expanded financial aid, allowing first-generation and low-income students to receive grants covering tuition and other expenses. They also ran recruitment efforts in underserved communities to ensure that talented students had access to elite education. In addition, many diversity scholarships were targeted toward historically underrepresented groups, allowing them to graduate without massive debt.

With DEI policies now under threat, Harvard’s new tuition-free plan for middle- and low-income families could be seen as a response to the loss of these programs, ensuring that financial barriers do not disproportionately affect students from diverse backgrounds.

Harvard’s expansion of financial aid could put pressure on other elite universities to adopt similar policies, particularly as student loan debt remains a national crisis. Many institutions, particularly Ivy League schools, have already been forced to reevaluate their admissions strategies in light of the Supreme Court’s ruling on affirmative action.