Over 2m Users in Four Days: X’s Ban Shoots Bluesky to Meteoric Rise in Brazil – But for How Long?

Elon Musk’s X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, has recently found itself in deep waters in Brazil. Following a decision by the Brazilian Supreme Court, the platform has been banned in the South American country, and its users are now unable to access it.

This abrupt suspension has given way to a surge in users flocking to Bluesky, a decentralized social media app that has quickly gained traction as an alternative to Musk’s embattled platform.

In just four days, Bluesky has seen a staggering increase of over 2 million new users, a meteoric rise attributed in part to the vacuum left by X’s ban in Brazil. According to TechCrunch, this overwhelming influx of users resulted in some encountering “Not Enough Resources” errors as the platform’s engineering team scrambled to expand server capacity to accommodate the surge. Despite these technical hiccups, Bluesky has swiftly claimed the title of the most downloaded app in Brazil, outpacing Meta’s X rival, Threads, in remarkable fashion.

According to Appfigures, Bluesky’s downloads have surged by an astronomical 1,018,952 percent, a figure that underscores how quickly the platform has gained popularity in Brazil.

Factors Driving The Growth

One key factor behind this preference for Bluesky over Threads lies in its interface, which mirrors the familiar look and feel of X, particularly the timeline layout that many former Twitter users have grown accustomed to. While Threads offers its own set of features, Brazilians appear to favor Bluesky’s resemblance to the platform that Musk has reshaped since taking over.

Another critical driver behind Bluesky’s ascent is its decentralized structure, a stark contrast to the more centralized nature of X. The decentralized framework of Bluesky, akin to platforms like Mastodon, allows for more resilient operations, particularly in situations where political motivations might lead to shutdowns or restrictions.

In the case of X, which has been embroiled in controversy over its approach to content moderation and speech freedoms, Bluesky’s model presents a stark alternative. Users on Bluesky are given more autonomy to manage content, compared to X’s centralized moderation policies. This decentralization offers users a sense of security and resilience, which could explain the mass migration from X to Bluesky in Brazil.

Bluesky’s rise is not just a story of technical alternatives; it reflects the broader search for social media platforms that offer greater control, freedom, and reliability. Since its creation during Jack Dorsey’s tenure as Twitter CEO in 2019, Bluesky has been built around the principle of decentralization, with an emphasis on allowing users to move between different Bluesky providers and gain greater control over their content feeds. The app’s decentralized architecture has gained appeal as users increasingly seek platforms that are less prone to sudden changes or regulatory challenges that could disrupt access or service.

Although still missing some features that X offers, Bluesky has managed to maintain its appeal to former X users due to its intuitive and familiar interface. For many Brazilians, the platform’s resemblance to Twitter’s layout offers a sense of continuity, making it easier to transition and rebuild their digital presence without feeling like they are starting from scratch.

Additionally, Bluesky’s recent performance indicators reflect its growing engagement, with likes on the platform rising to 106.4 million and followers reaching 100.8 million, a significant leap for an emerging platform.

Meanwhile, Meta’s Threads has struggled to keep pace with Bluesky’s growth in Brazil. Despite being positioned as a rival to X, Threads has been overshadowed by Bluesky’s rapid adoption, which highlights a gap in user preference.

While Threads may appeal to those invested in the Meta ecosystem, Bluesky’s more decentralized and flexible structure offers something distinct—a sense of freedom and control, particularly valuable in environments where social media platforms face political interference.

However, Bluesky’s moment in the sun may be short-lived. A significant number of Brazilians have turned to Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) to bypass the Supreme Court’s ban on X, despite the court’s stipulated $9,000 fine for doing so. This is seen as a reflection of the depth of loyalty many users have to Musk’s platform. This means, that if the legal conflict between X and Brazil’s judiciary is resolved, it is highly likely that the majority of Bluesky’s new users will return to X, leaving Bluesky’s future in Brazil uncertain.

The Back Story of X’s Ban in Brazil

The face-off between Musk’s platform and Brazil’s judiciary stems from ongoing concerns about X’s content moderation policies, or lack thereof, under Musk’s ownership. After Musk’s $44 billion acquisition of Twitter in late 2022, concerns over hate speech, misinformation, and extremist content have been a constant source of tension. Brazil’s judiciary, under the leadership of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, has been particularly firm in cracking down on online misinformation, especially since the country’s tumultuous 2022 presidential elections.

In the lead-up to the 2022 elections, social media platforms, including X, played a significant role in the spread of misinformation and extremist rhetoric. Supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro were accused of using social media to incite violence, spread conspiracy theories, and undermine Brazil’s electoral process.

Musk’s hands-off approach to content moderation, coupled with his personal statements supporting “free speech absolutism,” clashed with the Brazilian judiciary’s attempts to control online discourse. These differences came to a head in recent months when the Supreme Court demanded that X appoint a legal representative in Brazil to ensure compliance with local laws on misinformation. X’s refusal to comply led to the platform’s ban.

But For How Long?

While the ban has driven many Brazilians to alternatives like Bluesky, the widespread use of VPNs to access X suggests that the pull of Musk’s platform remains strong. However, without the ban on X, Bluesky’s user base would not have swelled so quickly. Thus, it is believed that many of its new users are likely temporary migrants from X, simply waiting for the resolution of the legal dispute.

Analysts believe the outcome of the faceoff between Musk’s X and the Brazilian judiciary will largely dictate Bluesky’s long-term prospects in the country. They note that should X comply with the court’s demands and resume operations in Brazil, Bluesky may see a sharp decline in its user base, as many will likely revert to the platform they initially sought to avoid. On the other hand, if X continues to resist the judiciary, Bluesky could further solidify its position as a viable alternative for disenchanted users seeking a decentralized, censorship-resistant platform.