The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), on 23rd May 2022, reported that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.11 percent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter (Q1) of 2022.
In the latest published report, the NBS revealed the figure showed sustained positive growth for the sixth consecutive quarter since the recession witnessed in 2020 when negative growth rates were recorded in quarters two and three of that year.
The report said, “The first quarter 2022 growth rate further represents an improvement in economic performance. The observed trend since Q4 2020 is an indication of gradual economic stability.
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“The Q1 2022 growth rate was higher than the 0.51 per cent growth rate recorded in Q1 2021 by 2.60 per cent points and lower than 3.98 per cent recorded in Q4 2021 by 0.88 per cent points. Nevertheless, quarter-on-quarter, real GDP grew at -14.66 per cent in Q1 2022 compared to Q4 2021, reflecting a lower economic activity than the preceding quarter.”
In the quarter under review, according to the data agency, the aggregate GDP stood at N45,317,823.33 million in nominal terms – a performance that was higher when compared to the Q1 2021 which recorded an aggregate GDP of N40,014,482.74 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 13.25 per cent.
It added that the nominal GDP growth rate in Q1 2022 was higher relative to the 12.25 per cent growth recorded in Q1 2021, and higher compared to the 13.11 per cent growth recorded in the preceding quarter.
While broadly classifying the Nigerian economy into the oil and non-oil sectors, the NBS revealed that the nation recorded an average daily oil production of 1.49 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q1 2022.
This value, it stated, was lower than the daily average production of 1.72mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2021 by 0.23mbpd, and lower than the Q4 2021 production volume of 1.50mbpd by 0.01mbpd.
“Real growth of the oil sector was –26.04 per cent (year-on-year) in Q1 2022, indicating a decrease of 23.83 per cent points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2021,” the report said. “Growth decreased by 17.99 per cent points when compared to Q4 2021 which was –8.06 per cent.
“Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 9.11% in Q1 2022. The oil sector contributed 6.63 per cent to the total real GDP in Q1 2022, down from the figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2021 and up compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 9.25 per cent and 5.19 per cent respectively.”
According to the data agency, the non-oil sector grew by 6.08 per cent in real terms during the reference quarter (Q1 2022).
It further explained that the rate was higher by 5.28 per cent points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2021 and 1.34 per cent points higher than the fourth quarter of 2021.
“This sector was driven in the first quarter of 2022 mainly by information and communication (telecommunication); trade; financial and insurance (financial institutions); agriculture (crop production); and manufacturing (food, beverage, and tobacco), accounting for positive GDP growth.
“In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 93.37 per cent to the nation’s GDP in the first quarter of 2022, higher than the share recorded in the first quarter of 2021 which was 90.75 per cent, and lower than the fourth quarter of 2021 recorded as 94.81 per cent.”
From my view, the said report was about ‘year-on-year growth’. According to the publication, which seemed complicated and confusing, on quarter-on-quarter, real GDP grew at -14.66 per cent in Q1 2022 compared to Q4 2021, reflecting a lower economic activity than the preceding quarter.
So, if the last paragraph is anything to go by, or holds water, one might wonder the reason the NBS stated that Nigeria recorded a rise in her GDP. If the quarter in question (Q1, 2022) declined in growth compared to the preceding quarter (Q4, 2021), how could it be reported that the country recorded a significant improvement in her GDP?
In a nutshell, the NBS’s report, which was rather misleading, requires a holistic review towards making amends where need be.