Nigeria’s foreign trade saw a remarkable turnaround in 2024, with total exports surging to $50.4 billion—an increase largely attributed to the naira’s sharp depreciation and the elimination of fuel subsidies.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals that total trade volume reached a record-breaking N138 trillion, marking a staggering 106% rise compared to the previous year. When adjusted for exchange rates, this translates to $89.9 billion in dollar terms, reflecting a 22.1% growth.
This resurgence follows a period of contraction in 2023 when the shift to a market-driven exchange rate caused a 35% decline in total trade. However, businesses appear to have adapted to the new economic reality, with trade rebounding sharply in 2024. Looking further back, Nigeria’s peak trade volume in the last five years occurred in 2022, when total trade was recorded at $113.8 billion. At the time, the official exchange rate was N460 to the dollar, but with the parallel market rate at N736 per dollar, a recalculated trade volume would have stood at just $71.7 billion.
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The transition to a flexible exchange rate system in 2023 triggered more than a steep 50% naira devaluation, significantly altering Nigeria’s trade dynamics. This depreciation made exports more competitive, while imports became costlier, contributing to a significant increase in export earnings. Yet, beneath these impressive figures lies the fundamental reality that Nigeria’s economy remains heavily dependent on crude oil.
In 2024, total exports nearly doubled, rising by 96.3% to N60.59 trillion. The primary driver was crude oil production, which reached 1.5 million barrels per day. In dollar terms, total exports stood at $50.5 billion—an improvement from $39.6 billion in 2023 but still lower than the $58.2 billion recorded in 2022. When using the parallel market rate for analysis, 2024 emerges as the most lucrative year for Nigeria’s export earnings.
Crude oil exports alone accounted for $36 billion (N55.2 trillion) in 2024, making up about 71% of total exports. This represents an increase from $31 billion in 2023 but remains below the $45.8 billion recorded in 2022. The oil sector continues to be the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, financing government spending and supporting foreign exchange reserves. However, the industry remains plagued by persistent challenges, including large-scale crude oil theft, underinvestment in upstream production, and environmental conflicts that have disrupted output. Despite government interventions, Nigeria has yet to meet its ambitious production target of 2 million barrels per day.
Beyond crude oil, non-oil exports saw a resurgence, reaching $5.9 billion in 2024—the highest level since 2020 in both naira and dollar terms. These exports, largely comprising agricultural and mineral products, have been bolstered by increased regional trade within Africa. However, their contribution remains marginal compared to oil.
Meanwhile, imports continued their upward trend. In dollar terms, total imports amounted to $39 billion (N60.5 trillion) in 2024, based on an official exchange rate of N1,535 per dollar. This is an increase from $34 billion in 2023 but significantly lower than the $55.6 billion recorded in 2022. The persistent decline in imports over the past few years is tied to naira depreciation, which has made foreign goods more expensive and restricted businesses’ access to foreign exchange for imports.
Despite the impressive foreign trade figures, Nigeria’s trade data does not account for services, which form a significant portion of foreign exchange outflows. The country spends heavily on imported services, particularly in technology, consulting, and technical support. These transactions exert additional pressure on the exchange rate, contributing to continued volatility in the forex market.
Nonetheless, the latest figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) suggest that the country’s external accounts are stabilizing. Nigeria recorded a current account balance of $5.14 billion in the third quarter of 2024, signaling a tentative improvement despite ongoing forex-related challenges.
While the sharp rise in total trade offers a promising outlook, the sustainability of this growth is said to depend much on addressing the structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s trade composition. Economists have noted that without reducing overreliance on oil exports and strengthening local production to curb import dependency, the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks—especially fluctuations in global crude oil prices and exchange rate volatility. The government’s challenge now is to build on this momentum by fostering a diversified trade strategy that strengthens non-oil exports and mitigates forex pressures.