Revealing lines there: “Nigeria’s economic future is being mapped out in bold projections, with optimistic forecasts laid out by renowned economist Bismarck Rewane. Speaking at the Access Bank Customer Forum in Lagos, Rewane, the Managing Director and CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, painted a picture of a growing economy, steadying at a projected 3.5% growth by 2026.
“That growth, he said, would push Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) to an impressive $400 billion, potentially making the country the second-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa…He projected that market capitalization would reach N58 trillion by 2026”.
Interesting. So, Nigeria is not #2 in Africa on GDP right now, and we have to work to become #2. Good People, in 2015, we hit $560 billion in GDP. Then elections happened, and now, we have to work hard to hit $400 billion.
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Naira has lost a value of 10x against Francophone Africa’s CFA Franc. In 2015, Cotonou’s 1CFA Franc currency exchanged for 25 kobo, today, it is close to N2.50. Kenyan shillings have also done the same 10x against the Naira – and Naira continues to bleed. So, how do you grow under such situations? Simply, even this $400 billion GDP by 2026 is not assured.
Then the stock market which we expect to hit N58 trillion by 2026. If you use today’s exchange rate, that is less than $40 billion. South Africa’s stock exchange is well ahead of $1.2 trillion, but Nigeria needs to hit $40 billion by 2026. Right now, the stock market of Botswana is larger than Nigeria’s stock exchange. A company in South Africa can buy all companies in our stock market with 30% of its global value.
Good People, note one thing: we are underperforming as a country, no matter how we want to put it. And we have lost a decade. During Christmas, I was in Ovim, and I went to Oriendu Market to shop with Ifeoma (we paid for things but did not collect any…). But instead of the typical “go slow” around the junction, the road was clear. That was when I knew the extent of the economic paralysis in Nigeria!
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Part of our challenge is also the titles we give people. Once we start describing people with things like renowned, prominent, expert, statesman, etc, we are already shortchanging ourselves. Here, one of your ‘renowned’ economist is telling you that hitting $400B GDP by 2026, that is 12 of years after you were over $500B, is impressive. These are the issues. How exactly is $400B impressive for a population of over 230 million? When it comes to numbers, I only take people with Engineering, Physics and Mathematics background seriously, the rest will need to prove themselves.
You are not growing when your population growth rate is competing with your GDP growth rate, you either stagnant or scaling poverty. You don’t fiddle numbers or dish out word salad on things that are self-evident. Again, putting exchange rate to be N1560 by 2026 is also a misnomer, what does it base on exactly – linear or instantaneous movement? It is not everytime you have the microphone that you are obliged to say something.
Stock market valued at N58 trillion by 2026? These are pitiful numbers. If we are not ready to touch things that will bring accelerated growth and development, then we can continue drawing circles. Ordinary crude oil, we can’t guarantee.