Nigeria’s Energy Renaissance: Tinubu’s Administration Seeks to Reverse $80 Billion Investment Exodus

Over the past decade, global oil and gas investors have funneled an estimated $80 billion into energy projects elsewhere, largely bypassing Nigeria. This stark revelation was made by Olu Verheijen, Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Energy, at the 2025 Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) held in Abuja on Monday.

The summit, which brought together top energy stakeholders and government officials, served as a platform to reflect on Nigeria’s 2024 energy sector performance and its implications for Africa’s broader energy transformation. A key takeaway was that the Nigerian government is aggressively pursuing reforms to restore investor confidence, enhance oil production, and reposition the country as a top-tier oil and gas investment destination.

Addressing the core issue of why Nigeria lost out on $80 billion in oil and gas investments, Verheijen pointed to long-standing concerns over regulatory instability, fiscal uncertainty, and security challenges that made the country unattractive to global investors.

To reverse this trend, President Tinubu issued three landmark directives in February 2024—Directives 40, 41, and 42—designed to remove investment bottlenecks and enhance Nigeria’s competitiveness in the global energy market.

According to Verheijen, these measures have already begun to yield results. By mid-2024, the Ubeta Final Investment Decision (FID) was secured through a joint venture with Total, followed by the approval of Bonga North FID by Shell and its partners at the end of the year. These multi-billion-dollar projects signal renewed confidence in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

Looking ahead, additional FID approvals are expected in 2025, further solidifying the country’s attractiveness as an energy investment hub.

Oil and Gas Sector Renaissance: Nigeria’s 2.06mbpd 2030 Target

Beyond attracting foreign investment, President Tinubu has set ambitious targets for Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. The administration aims to restore crude oil production to 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd) in the short term and scale up to 4 million bpd by 2030.

To achieve this, the government has focused on enhancing security in oil-producing regions, a major challenge that has long hindered production.

“Through a data-driven security framework implemented in collaboration with oil operators, the Office of the National Security Adviser, and the Ministry of Defence, we have facilitated a 500,000 bpd increase in oil production since the start of this administration,” Verheijen revealed.

Verheijen described 2024 as a landmark year for Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, citing a series of transformative developments:

1. Nigeria secured three out of Africa’s four FIDs—valued at over $5.5 billion—cementing its position as a premier destination for offshore investments.
2. The country approved its first deepwater FID in over a decade, signaling renewed investor confidence.
3. Five major oil asset acquisitions were completed, expanding production capabilities.
4. Two domestic refineries were revived, boosting local refining capacity.
5. Dangote Refinery commenced petrol production, significantly reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel.

“Our nation solidified its position as a premier destination for deep offshore oil and gas investments, approved its first deepwater FID in over a decade, facilitated five major asset acquisitions, revived two domestic refineries, and commenced petrol production at Africa’s largest refinery.

“These milestones are not coincidental; they result from strategic leadership and decisive economic policies under President Bola Tinubu’s administration,” Verheijen said.

Reforming the Power Sector: Presidential Metering Initiative (PMI)

Beyond oil and gas, the Tinubu administration is also pushing reforms in the power sector, focusing on eliminating inefficiencies and stabilizing electricity supply.

A key initiative is the Presidential Metering Initiative (PMI), which consolidates all metering programs under a unified framework targeting the deployment of seven million smart meters.

“The goal is to end the inefficiencies of estimated billing, improve revenue collection for electricity distribution companies (Discos), and enhance overall service delivery,” Verheijen explained.

To ensure the long-term financial stability of the power sector, the government is also clearing outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers and generation companies while implementing a gradual transition to cost-reflective tariffs. The strategy aims to balance affordability with financial sustainability, ensuring that vulnerable populations are protected through a targeted subsidy system.

Nigeria’s Role in Africa’s Energy Future

Verheijen emphasized that Nigeria’s success in securing major oil and gas investments, expanding refining capacity, and enhancing electrification will have far-reaching consequences for Africa’s energy security, intra-African trade, and industrialization.

As the largest oil producer in Africa, Nigeria plays a critical role in regional energy markets. OPEC data shows that while major oil producers like Saudi Arabia (9 million bpd), Russia (9 million bpd), and the U.S. (13 million bpd) dominate global production, Nigeria remains the highest producer in Africa.

As competition for investment grows, Nigeria is positioning itself as a top energy hub, leveraging policy reforms and security improvements to attract global investors and reclaim its share of the $80 billion that previously bypassed the country.

To reach 4 million bpd production by 2030, the Tinubu administration is banking on continued investor confidence, a stable regulatory framework, enhanced security, and improved infrastructure.

While challenges remain—especially in security and refining capacity—the recent wave of FID approvals, refinery revivals, and strategic reforms indicate a renewed trajectory for Nigeria’s energy sector.