Nigeria’s Cash Transfer Programme Expands to 32.21m Beneficiaries, But Questions Linger Over Impact and Transparency

The number of citizens benefiting from the Federal Government’s cash transfer program under the National Social Safety Net Program-Scale Up (NASSP-SU) has surged to 32.21 million as of January 2025, according to the latest World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report released on January 29, 2025.

Despite concerns over the efficacy, transparency, and sustainability of the program, the cash transfer initiative has continued to expand—covering over 5 million households across the country. The report highlights that 28.55 million of the total beneficiaries are women, a sign that the initiative is targeting vulnerable groups, particularly in rural communities.

Implemented by the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation, the program is designed to provide financial relief to low-income households while strengthening Nigeria’s social safety net system. However, even as the government touts its achievements, questions remain about whether the funds are truly reaching the intended beneficiaries or if they are being mismanaged—a concern that has plagued past social intervention initiatives.

Is Transparency Improving?

The report states that all cash transfers since March 2024 have been strictly processed through verified National Identification Numbers (NINs) or Bank Verification Numbers (BVNs), in line with a December 2023 directive from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). This decision was aimed at curbing fraud and enhancing transparency, but it also raises concerns about exclusion, particularly for Nigerians who still lack proper identification.

To address this, the National Social Safety Net Coordinating Office (NASSCO) has been licensed as a front-end enrollment partner for NIN registrations. In collaboration with the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), the agency is working to validate existing social register entries and ensure that all new recipients have a verified identity before receiving payments.

The report also noted that 1.4 million households, out of the 5 million currently covered, have received a second and third tranche of financial support. Meanwhile, the number of households receiving cash under the Economic Shock Responsive Cash Transfer (ESR-CT) component has increased to 5.39 million, while beneficiaries under the Extended Regular Cash Transfer (ER-CT) program have reached 1.51 million.

With the government aiming to reach 56 million Nigerians by December 2025, the World Bank notes that the scale-up efforts appear promising but warns that political and economic risks could threaten the program’s sustainability.

Challenges and Risks

However, the NASSP-SU program has been given a “Moderately Satisfactory” rating in the World Bank’s latest report. The assessment highlights several key challenges, including:

• Delays in implementation due to frequent leadership changes and policy adjustments.
• Political and macroeconomic instability could affect continued funding and program sustainability.
• The lack of beneficiary satisfaction surveys makes it difficult to measure the true impact of the initiative.

The implementation delays are particularly concerning given that the government has changed leadership in the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs twice within the past year. Following the appointment of new ministers in October 2024, the program’s future depends on whether the new administration can maintain funding and oversight.

Moreover, while the use of digital payments linked to NINs and BVNs is a step towards reducing corruption, many argue that the Nigerian government has a poor track record of financial transparency. Previous social intervention schemes, including TraderMoni and the COVID-19 relief materials, faced allegations of fraud and fund mismanagement, raising fears that a significant portion of the cash transfers may be diverted before reaching the intended beneficiaries.

A Political Tool or a Genuine Poverty Alleviation Strategy?

With Nigeria’s economic conditions worsening, the cash transfer program has become a politically sensitive issue. Inflation remains above 34%, the cost of food has soared, and millions of Nigerians continue to struggle with reduced purchasing power.

The government has framed the program as a lifeline for the poor, but opposition figures and economic analysts have criticized its effectiveness, questioning whether handing out cash addresses the root causes of poverty. There are concerns that the program is being used as a short-term political tool rather than a sustainable economic strategy.

Moreover, some analysts argue that giving money directly to beneficiaries does not necessarily translate into long-term economic empowerment. Without complementary skills development, job creation, and economic reforms, the cash transfer initiative could become another expensive but ineffective government welfare program.

Impact on Financial Inclusion and Fintech Innovation

One undeniable impact of the NASSP-SU expansion is its role in driving digital payments adoption in Nigeria. With 100% of transfers now processed electronically, the initiative is pushing more Nigerians into the formal financial ecosystem.

For fintech companies and mobile money operators, this presents a major opportunity. Millions of low-income Nigerians who previously had no formal bank accounts are now being introduced to digital financial services, potentially expanding access to savings, credit, and insurance products.

However, there is a risk that many of these newly onboarded beneficiaries will withdraw their cash immediately after receiving it, rather than engaging in long-term financial inclusion.

With the World Bank projecting that cash transfer beneficiaries could rise to 56 million by December 2025, the next year will be crucial in determining whether the NASSP-SU can deliver tangible benefits or whether it will become another poorly managed government program.