I expect Nigeria to rebase its GDP in the next 18 months considering the nation has lost the #1 spot as Africa’s largest economy. More so, the nation plans to hit $1 trillion in GDP by 2030.
Today, the GDP is projected by the IMF to be about $253 billion which is a 2X punishment after the Naira lost its value from N430/$ to N1,000/$. Now, I have some questions on how this could be done:
Option 1: Nigeria rebases and arrives at $700 billion in GDP, a 30% premium pre-Naira floating. Then work to grow to $1 trillion!!! (lol).
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Option 2: Nigeria focuses on growing the economy, with Naira at N1,000/$ and hope to hit a Naira equivalent of $1 trillion.
Option 3: Nigeria “fights” for Naira and gets it down to N250/$ at the current level.
Options 2 and 3 are largely mutually inclusive as you cannot grow the economy that way without helping the Naira. Looking deeper, it simply means increased productivity in the land.
All said, which one do you think the government is working on right now for the $1 trillion GDP?
I expect Nigeria to rebase its GDP in the next 18 months considering the nation has lost the #1 spot as Africa’s largest economy. More so, the nation plans to hit $1 trillion in GDP by 2030.
Today, the GDP is projected by the IMF to be about $253 billion which is a 2X punishment… pic.twitter.com/gOnRr08kZp
— Ndubuisi Ekekwe (@ndekekwe) April 23, 2024
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What components that are currently left out that Nigeria could bring in to rebase and announce that the GDP is now $700 billion? It will be an interesting play, maybe we should just announce that exchange rate is N450/$…
All other options require actual work, so if there’s chance of even achieving $700 billion (still highly improbable anyway) by 2030, the dance steps need to start showing now. At our current level, even if we grow at 10% per annum, we are still not close to $1 trillion by 2030. We learn numbers by force here.