Nigeria Presidential Election Final Results for 2023 (updated)

Final Nigeria presidential results 2023 by state

In the final result called by INEC, Nigeria’s election umpire, here are the main summaries, from the 36 states of the federation and Abuja:

Tinubu of APC scored the highest votes; 8,805,420 votes and won 12 states (Rivers, Borno, Jigawa, Zamfara, Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo,  Ogun).

Atiku (PDP) scored 6,984,290 votes; won 12 states (Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Kaduna, Gombe, Yobe, Bauchi, Adamawa,  Taraba,  Osun, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa).

Obi (LP) got 6,093,962; won also 12 states (Edo, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, FCT, Plateau, Imo, Ebonyi, Nasarawa, Anambra, Abia, Enugu)

Kwankwaso (NNPP) won 1,496,671 votes and won a state – Kano State.

Using the results, Tinubu scored at least 25% of votes in 29 states; Atiku (21) and Obi (16). One needs at least 24 or 25 states (including Abuja). Based on that, Tinubu gets the call.

Pending a determination that the total canceled votes (many of them across the nation) will not change the outcome, INEC will do the trigger and make a call for Tinubu.

Yet, this is a really low-turnout election which is contrary to alternate data. In 2019, APC received 15,191,847 votes while PDP finished with 11,262,978 votes, giving at least 26 million to elect the president. In 2023, you have about 21 million voters. In 2015, the number was about 28.2 million.

The pollsters are correct: Obi wins with high turnout, but Tinubu wins with low turnout. This election, from official numbers, is low turnout but INEC has to explain how it lost at least 5 million voters in a cycle where more people registered, collected PVCs, etc, implying that voter suppression possibly changed the outcome.

Here is the final result of Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential election as called by INEC. Based on this result, Senator Bola Tinubu of APC will be declared president-elect any moment from now. But understand that INEC, the electoral umpire, is struggling to navigate this declaration considering the avalanche of complaints from local and international organizations on the conduct of the election.

From the UK to European Union to African Union reps, they faulted the processes. Yet, from historical precedent, INEC will likely call the exercise for Tinubu, and then challenge the other players to go to court to lose.

Ex-president Jonathan just visited Tinubu. Ghana’s ex-president Mahama has also visited. Others will be waiting for INEC to make it official.  If this election had been seamlessly executed, INEC would have made the call. But no matter what, at the end, Tinubu will get the certificate as the president-elect. Everyone should stay calm please.

*this analysis assumes cancelled votes are below the difference between Tinubu and Atiku or Obi

Source: Stears

 

I have graded INEC and the score is F9 (hopeless and irredeemable failure in an exam), using the WAEC grading system.

I was waiting for the international election observers, and for the very first time, they did not drop the usual bland statement, but went all the way to express displeasure on the charade from INEC: “Nigerians were mostly not impressed by the conduct of the 2023 presidential and national assembly elections….Logistical challenges and multiple incidents of political violence overshadowed the electoral process and impeded a substantial number of voters from participating”.

They continued: “at the close of the polls, challenges with the electronic transfer of results and their upload to a public portal in a timely manner, undermined citizen confidence at a crucial moment of the process…Moreover, inadequate communication and lack of transparency by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) about their cause and extent created confusion and eroded voters’ trust in the process.” – The Joint Election Observation Mission (JEOM)

INEC abandoned its promised method and created figures from the blues; a case study of Ekiti State: “I worked on the results as presented yesterday and I discovered that we have 987,647 registered voters in Ekiti and 301, 558 accredited..“And since we have 301, 558 accredited, the results as presented yesterday, APC had 201,494. If you subtract that from 301, 558, what you have left is 100, 064.”

“Out of 100,064, PDP scored 89, 554, if you subtract that from 100,064, what is left is 10,510. And now, it was also recorded that Labour had 11, 397 when the total number left is 10, 510, leaving an over figure of 887.

“Apart from this surplus, we have not even calculated the votes of other political parties. We recall that yesterday you told us that ADC scored 1037.” PDP leader

INEC has failed Nigerians, if we follow the letters of the electoral act which offered the option to send results electronically. How do you explain that after 24 hours voting ended in Abia State, no results have been declared. Indeed, when they prefer to do these things manually, you get the picture that nothing has changed.

Meanwhile, there is a shocker: Atiku wins Buhari’s state, Katsina state. By winning Katsina, the PDP path widens, using the flawed results INEC is sharing. Unless someone can explain why it is taking them 24 hours to announce most states, I will not agree that these numbers are real.

Results are electronically transmitted, why are they still hanging? Why can’t they release ALL at the same time instead of this piecemeal release? Nigerians need to ask INEC to release all the results at ONCE!

Atiku polled a total vote of 489,045 ahead of Mr Tinubu who got 482, 283 making a difference of 6,762. Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) got 69,386 votes.

I am looking at the data coming from INEC; most things do not make sense. The statistical ambivalence is mind blowing. Take Ikeja local government, Obi scored 30,004 votes; Tinubu scored 21,276 votes  and Atiku 2,280 votes. Ikeja is the capital of Lagos State and the local government area where Tinubu voted.

But move a border to Ikeja, the numbers move at multiples. Then move to Adamawa State, the homestate of Atiku, Obi does well.  Then in Rivers State, Obi has no records.  Obi wins in ex-president Jonathan’s polling unit but that was it there. Then Atiku does a really remarkable job in Osun.

I am also concerned that INEC does not really have any update on Southeast when some states in SW are largely done. Is it a network problem or what? Abia and Enugu are zero; why?

This is going to the wire; pity  political scientists; no one would have predicted the heterogeneity we’re seeing.

Tinubu opens a bigger gap. But Atiku still looks really great when you consider the states which have been called.

I am looking at the data coming from INEC; most things do not make sense. The statistical ambivalence is mind blowing. My conclusion is that BVAS possibly was not deployed at scale. Picking samples from Lagos, many things do not make sense. Take Ikeja local government, Obi scored 30,004 votes; Tinubu scored 21,276 votes  and 2,280 votes. Ikeja is the capital of Lagos State and the local government area where Tinubu voted.  But move a border to Ikeja, the numbers move at multiples.

This result depicts huge heterogeneity in the voter base which is unprecedented and widespread. Political scientists will have data to explain what happened.

Tinubu continues to lead.

“The Commission regrets this setback, especially because of the importance of IReV in our results management process. Consequently, the Commission wishes to assure Nigerians that the challenges are not due to any intrusion or sabotage of our systems, and that the IReV remains well-secured. Our technical team is working assiduously to solve all the outstanding problems, and users of the IReV would have noticed improvements since last night.” So, we have to wait for INEC to get its system back.

(This website tekedia.com is also having issues. Traffic crashed my website. It seems the Amazon elastic compute which was to allow spike traffic is not working well. My apologies. Please keep checking; my team is checking why it failed.  I am updating data at https://www.tekedia.com/nigeria-2023-presidential-election-result-dashboard/ replying 100% on INEC data)

Ogun State, the home state of Nigeria’s former president, Obasanjo, never shows love to the ex-general. Though not on the ballot, his endorsement of Obi was a moment in the political game. In OBJ’s local government, Obi scored 13%, Tinubu 64% with Atiku picking 16%. Of course, when he ran for president in 2019, he lost his home state (and the whole of Southwest), and when he endorsed Atiku in 2019, the former Vice President lost the state to APC.

Rabiu Kwankwaso is having a really great show in Kano State. If he ends up picking Kano State, expect his impact to inject into who becomes the next president of Nigeria. Nonetheless, looking at how Atiku outperformed in Southwest, he should be feeling great.

The race seems now between Atiku and Tinubu but is just too early. Most of the results are from South-west which means Atiku has his base yet to be called. From all indications, we may be going for a run-off.

The New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) wins Ajingi local government in Kano State; with 16,798 votes. APC –  7,066 votes,  PDP – 1,540 votes.

Atiku Abubakar is looking really great as results begin to pop in. In Ekiti, Osun, Ondo and Katsina states, for results called, he outperformed his 2019 numbers so far.  The biggest surprise is his numbers in Katsina. But it is way TOO EARLY – and really EARLY.  I will be updating this page as numbers begin to drop.

I only use INEC reported data

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