A few years ago, Iran seized Stena Impero, a British-flagged oil tanker. One British commentator wrote that the Royal Navy had lost its mojo, if not, it would have turned Iran into a desert (when Great was in front of Britain, it would have destroyed the coastal region of Iran).
Years later, Russia went into Ukraine and NATO, led by the US, is helping to protect Ukraine – and possibly will issue a guarantee of Ukraine’s future security, one way or the other when the dust settles.
Right now in West Africa, Mali and Burkina Faso have jointly told ECOWAS, led by Nigeria (holding the rotating Chairmanship), that if it fights the Niger Republic junta, they will fight to defend the Niger Republic sovereignty. The junta overthrew a democratic president a few days ago. Here, Mail and Burkina Faso are the NGGTO* (North of Gulf of Guinea Treaty Organization), analogous to NATO in Ukraine!
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And the most intriguing part, Russia’s newswire, TASS, posted the video, summarizing: “Burkina Faso and Mali intend to consider any military intervention in Niger as a declaration of war against them” — TASS (video below)
The military leadership of Mali and Burkina Faso warned that any military intervention against Niger would also amount to a declaration of war against the West African nations.
An operation in Niger would have “disastrous consequences” for Niger and risk destabilizing the whole region, government spokesmen for Mali and Burkina Faso said in a joint statement Monday.
People, if you love your nkwobi, amala and zobo in Nigeria, tell your political leaders not to declare war in Niger. It is not necessary because if they do, it means we will have Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso at war at the same time. If that happens, Nigeria is done economically and it can break the nation due to the stress that would come from it. Like the British did on Stena Impero, Nigeria and ECOWAS must dialogue!
??Burkina Faso and Mali intend to consider any military intervention in Niger as a declaration of war against them — TASS
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) July 31, 2023
*I made that up.
Comment on Feed
Comment 1: Another brilliant piece from Prof Ndubuisi Ekekwe .
I will never for once suggest that Nigeria and ECOWAS should go to war in order to remove the occupying forces in Niger republic.
Nigeria is currently battling ferocious internal crises ranging from insecurity, armed banditry and kidnapping to economic issues. We have more than enough to bite as a country already. We cannot afford more of these!
What ECOWAS should do is for it set political agenda with strict deadline for Niger republic through mutual negotiation with military occupiers. This agenda must include timelines to organize national elections and hand over to a democratically elected government and the exit of the military junta from political scene.
What we want in Africa right now is peace and stability; politically and economically.
Comment 2: When WW2 started in Europe on September 1, 1939, America stayed away from it as many analysts believed it should not enter the war but face it’s internal issues (the Great Depression was 10 years earlier). However, when Japan dropped over a thousand bombs on Pearl Harbor, America knew that problems were at its doorstep.
This challenge from NGGTO* is a litmus test for Nigeria to live up to its bidding as the giant of Africa. It’s the opportunity to call the bluff of Wagner’s ragtag group and project our image as Big Brother Africa.
It’s terrible optics if Nigeria backs down from these military boys; Togo, Ghana, Cameroon, Senegal etc, might follow. We must use Niger as the scapegoat and use all means to stop the military junta.
If ECOWAS backs down, the consequence in 10 years will make all of us wished they hadn’t given in to these Wagner puppets. It’s also an opportunity for Nigeria to improve its internal policing and intelligence capacity. Niger is the opportunity to ensure we quel a private army standing up to Aftica using some puppets.
Nigeria must ensure the Niger coup fails.
To the Nigeria president, well-meaning Pan-Africans are behind you in ensuring the coup in Niger fails.
Comment 2C: I completely agree with your views. After all diplomatic means have been exhausted, there will be no other option. Nigeria must rise up to the challenge and we must understand that there is price to pay if we hope to remain the giant of Africa. I have heard different views as to whether democracy is working in Africa, my opinion for the sake of Africa and Africans, democratically led government remains the best form of government and we must do all that is possible to keep it while we redesign it (where necessary) to fit more into a working system for Africa and the individual countries in the continent.
My Response: Great comment except that I am not sure ECOWAS will win any war in Niger even though it can win the battle. So, you can get in, take the junta out but for 20 years, you have insurgency in 3 countries. These countries have wars at home via BK, inflation, etc.
Comment 3: If we fail to learn from history. It is most likely to repeat itself.
As much as most have called for non-Military intervention against the rising regional conflict probably backed by big nations. It is also very important that Nigeria doesn’t play the diplomacy with too much weakness. Our Military is watching. Military might is contagious across nations and what happened in Niger backed by Mail and BK, might raise interest back home. I mean. May what happened to MKO not happen to Bola. Because Nigeria is facing an economic civil war right now and it should not translate to more uglier things. Wisdom to the wise the scripture says. Wisdom is needed to navigate this delicate situations. Meanwhile BRICS summit is coming up by end of August, am I sensing something fishing? China & Russia? I also don’t trust the NATO alliance. Wisdom to our Leaders. Amen.
Comment 4: It is a great tragedy that Africans are even contemplating going to war with other Africans. It appears we have learned nothing. We continue to allow our real enemies to manipulate us for THEIR interests and not ours. Imagine if Africans actually spent time, energy, and precious resources building a Confederation of United African States. We could defend our continent and African sovereignty. There would be no need for our people to fight and we could dislodge the oppressors from Africans lands UNLESS they agreed to a much more Afrocentric approach to trade based on equality.
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There’s no capacity to go to war right now, we lack both the resources and motivation, so leave war out of the equation; Nigeria cannot successfully fight anyone outside.
The world works better with mixture of political ideologies and governance systems, it will be an aberration to want every African country to be ‘democratic’ in the eyes of those who used other means but democratic to develop their homelands.
People want better life, development, and security. Anything that offers them those things remains valid, we are becoming too confused and distracted as a people.