Over the past few decades, agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, telecommunications and manufacturing sectors contributed most to the growth of Nigerian economy. At present, manufacturing sector’s role, as key driver is limited but it has high potentials. This role will be stimulated during the Nigerian vision period in order to maximize its linkage with other relevant sectors of the economy. It is important to note that advancement in manufacturing is driven by technology. The figure shows the sectoral growth driver of the Nigerian economy from 1999 to 2008.
Picture of the Desired Economy by 2020
Under the NV20:2020 manufacturing and services are expected to dominate the structure of national output, while gross national investment is expected to increase, and the infrastructure base of production is expected to improve considerably. Income per capita should have risen to $US4,000 from the estimate of US$1,230 in the year 2008. Table shows existing and desired structure of national output by 2020.
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Figure above is sectoral growth driver of the Nigerian economy from 1999 to 2008.
Table: Existing and desired structure of national output by 2020.
| Activity Sector | Projected Share of Output by 2020 (%) | Existing Share of Output (%) |
| Agriculture | 3-15 | 42.1 |
| Industry | 30 – 50 | 23.8 |
| Manufacturing | 15 – 30 | 4.0 |
| Services | 45 – 75 | 34.1 |
Comments: Notice that the Nigerian Vision 2020 architects expect the economy to become a service driven one. The table above shows about 45-75% share by 2020. What this means is that they want the economy to be less dependent on agriculture and of course mineral extraction. To make this happen, the government must invest in ICT and other critical technologies. The reality is that services go hand in hand with technology development and adoption. The newer ways of improving productivity are largely technology driven these days.
For the plot, agriculture is still the driver. What must be pointed out though is that this agriculture is not the advanced type that is practiced in most developed nations. This is largely subsistence agriculture.