We picked the data and I shared it here last month. Many came after a messenger instead of focusing on the core thesis of our analysis (the original post). Since I made that post, many people have independently validated our call.
Good People, let us discuss the economics of the nation without everything being looked at from tribal and political angles. When sharing data is considered a political attack, you have a fading nation which is entering a fact-less era. My model was a 50% drop, but Leadership Newspaper is even saying 60%!
—original post
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Good People, our economic indicators in Nigeria have severely diminished. I just completed my back-the-envelope village boy study and the results are troubling. Three indicators:
– The number of active aircrafts parked in Nigeria’s leading local airport at 9pm have dropped by more than 30% from Jan 2023 numbers.
– The number of ships coming to Nigeria have dropped, and most troubling, ships continue to depart Nigeria largely empty. Ask your friends to climb the tallest buildings in Marina Lagos and count occasionally over a week, how many are coming and leaving, and how loaded they are.
-International traffic in Nigeria’s main airport – MMA Lagos – is off by more than 50% compared to Jan 2023 numbers. To do that, ask people who work there to take photos at 8pm WAT, and send them to you from Monday to Sunday.
If supply chain is the engine of commerce, the implication is that if our supply chain is seeing a significant drop, it does mean that our economic activities have reduced.
Comment on Feed
Comment 1: A lot of traders buying in Lagos and selling in Abidjan.
My Response: Currency repositioning. That is the reason Nigeria has a trade surplus. More than 80% of that is due to other African countries buying from Nigeria. CFA Franc has gained 10X against Naira in the last 10 years which means buying from Nigeria is a better deal for them.
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