Nigeria’s problems did not start in 2023. This problem has been brooding for years. What happened in 2023 was a major acceleration due to some policy changes. To understand this, consider when you were introduced to two topics in junior secondary: (1) simple and compound interests and (2) arithmetic and geometric progressions. You saw how compounding a principal could deliver higher principal over time, and how being on a geometric path is certainly better than a mere arithmetic one, for a good call.
Nigeria was on a simple path, running arithmetically. But we got it into a new lane and compounded geometrically on a race to the bottom, and we’re living it. Yes, there have always been problems. The only difference now is that we have accelerated the pace. But you cannot blame one government. When was the last time Nigeria invested in catalytic projects or infrastructure? When was the last time we invested in innovation-enablers?
As I have written here, as a student in FUTO, during internships, I worked on gas pipelines from PHC piping gas to Aba. Of course, the PHC – Aba was delightful then. The train from Ovim to Aba was working. Even Ovim NIPOST which was bigger than the general post office in both Owerri and Umuahia was functioning. The Ovim community contributed money and built it, and invited the Postmaster General to take over; I attended the event as a secondary school student.. The community had a veterinary clinic which was donated to the government. Today, all those assets have gone. I mean everything has gone!
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Excluding the first four years of Obasanjo’s presidency. what IBB accomplished in 8 years as a military man could challenge everything from 2003 on infrastructure and other physical assets. Abacha, another general, was a better economic man than most of these politicians. Under Abacha, Nigeria was constant for years. I used to tune in my small radio while in FUTO to listen to his budget. He was always clear: no transaction in US dollars, all contracts must be domiciled in Naira. This is not to praise him because he made many mistakes.
In this new era of loans, we have adopted new developmental models. US currency drives the agenda. Interestingly, the US dollar is not a common currency. Only America has the special printer to print it. For Nigeria, it has to earn it to have it. And what that means, from our agriculture policy to everything, we construct all on how to earn US dollars. So, they spend time to formulate policies for sesame seeds when every person in Ovim is interested in yam/cassava, but because the latter are not export-moving, no one cares.
The challenge for Nigeria now is to earn US dollars. Why? We need to service debts: “According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the country spent $9.8 billion, or 50% of its total dollar outflows, to service its foreign debts in that year. This was a significant increase from the $6.5 billion, or 35%, spent in 2022.”
Check… from 35% to 50%. That could get to 70%. Good People, these challenges are huge because if you have such debts on your balance sheet, your business could be doomed. Now, imagine a nation.
The real question today is this: how can we earn US dollars since these loans are running and America will not allow us to order the dollar-printers? That is a national essay topic I am proposing, and please send to the minister in charge of budget and economic planning.
Nigeria’s problems did not start in 2023. This problem has been brooding for years. What happened in 2023 was a major acceleration due to some policy changes. To understand this, consider when you were introduced to two topics in junior secondary: (1) simple and compound… pic.twitter.com/FXLYt9TxIy
— Ndubuisi Ekekwe (@ndekekwe) January 31, 2024
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Your starting paragraphs embody a euphemistic way of describing buffoonery, without mentioning it.
Not long ago we were borrowing to extend a rail line to Maradi, have we completed it and how much economic activities is it generating? This is a country that borrows for consumption, and when it borrows for capital projects, it still doesn’t know how to prioritize. The priority is always political ‘legacy’ and not what is catalytic to economic advancement. It’s not everywhere you see people who are wicked and inept at the same time, but Nigeria is overflowing with such people.
The present gang always blames the past gangs, until you ask the present gang to measure and put their own mess in numbers, then they will start hallucinating. How come the people prepped up as having the capacity, experience and leadership credentials to set Nigeria on the road to greatness, now consistently look bereft of ideas and incapacitated? Was it a case of misdiagnosis of the actual problems or that they never had it in them? If you are discerning, you would know that it has always been the latter, nobody apologizes for excellence anyway.
How do you ruin lives, careers, dreams, and sink an economy, yet working hard to explain glaring incompetence?