Germany has been considering an increase in its defense spending and aid to Ukraine, reflecting its evolving role in European security and support for Kyiv amid the ongoing conflict with Russia. As of early 2025, Germany has already emerged as one of Ukraine’s largest European backers, having committed significant military and financial resources since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
Discussions about further hikes in defense spending and aid come in the context of Germany meeting NATO’s 2% GDP defense spending target in 2024 and responding to both domestic and international pressures to bolster its military capabilities and support for Ukraine.
Historically, Germany announced a “Zeitenwende” (turning point) in 2022 under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which included a €100 billion special fund to modernize its armed forces, the Bundeswehr, and a pledge to consistently meet the NATO 2% target. NATO’s defense strategies in early 2025 are shaped by a rapidly shifting security landscape, driven primarily by Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, hybrid threats from multiple actors, and the need to adapt to emerging technologies and geopolitical realities.
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Part of this shift involved ramping up military aid to Ukraine, with commitments exceeding €28 billion by early 2025, including equipment from Bundeswehr stocks and industry deliveries. For 2024 alone, Germany allocated €8 billion in military aid to Ukraine, a figure that doubled from previous plans, signaling its intent to remain a key supporter.
Recent developments suggest Germany could push this further.
NATO’s bedrock is Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, which commits members to collective defense—an attack on one is an attack on all. This principle underpins its deterrence posture, historically focused on countering Soviet (now Russian) aggression. The 2022 Strategic Concept, reaffirmed at the 2023 Vilnius Summit and updated in preparatory discussions for the 2025 Washington Summit, identifies Russia as the “most significant and direct threat” to Allied security, alongside terrorism, cyber threats, and China’s growing influence.
In late 2024, the government agreed to an additional €12 billion in military support for Ukraine, and there have been calls from political figures, including incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz following his election victory in February 2025, to intensify assistance. Merz has indicated that Germany’s support for Ukraine has been insufficient and hinted at increasing military aid to ensure Ukraine can defeat Russia.
The push for higher defense spending faces challenges, including budgetary constraints and political debates over the “debt brake,” a constitutional limit on deficit spending. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has consistently advocated for more resources, requesting €6 billion more for the 2025 budget, though the approved increase was only €1.3 billion, bringing the total to €53.25 billion.
Despite this, Germany plans to halve its direct military aid to Ukraine in 2025, relying instead on a G7 scheme using interest from frozen Russian assets to raise $50 billion, a move criticized by some as reducing direct commitment. NATO’s strategies blend deterrence (preventing aggression through strength) and defense (readiness to respond), with a renewed emphasis on forward presence and rapid reaction.
Politically, a hike in spending could gain traction under Merz’s leadership, given his emphasis on strengthening Ukraine’s defense against Russia. However, economic realities—such as Germany’s debt levels and competing domestic priorities—may temper the scale of any increase.
In short, Germany could indeed push through a hike in defense spending and aid to Ukraine, building on its already substantial contributions. Whether this reaches the rumored €200 billion, or a more modest increase depends on political negotiations, coalition dynamics, and how Germany balances its NATO commitments, support for Ukraine, and domestic needs. The direction seems clear—more support is likely—but the magnitude is still uncertain.