Quote from Alex bobby on January 31, 2025, 3:36 AM

White House Calls for Renewed Denuclearisation Talks Amid Global Nuclear Threats

Arms control advocates are hopeful that former U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed support for denuclearisation will lead to fresh negotiations with Russia and China on arms reduction. Trump, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, expressed optimism about the potential for nuclear arms talks, describing them as "very possible."

Trump’s Call for Nuclear Reductions

Trump acknowledged the staggering sums of money being spent on nuclear weapons and the devastating consequences they pose. "Tremendous amounts of money are being spent on nuclear [weapons], and the destructive capability is something that we don’t even want to talk about because you don’t want to hear," he said. He recalled previous discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, noting that they had explored the possibility of bilateral reductions and suggested that China would have followed suit.

The renewed push for nuclear negotiations comes at a time when global arms control agreements are under strain. Just months before leaving office, former U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at the APEC summit in Peru, agreeing that nuclear weapon decisions should remain under human control. However, diplomatic tensions remain, particularly after China suspended nuclear arms control talks with the U.S. in protest of American arms sales to Taiwan.

Historical Context: A Long Battle for Nuclear Arms Control

The dangers of nuclear war became evident to the world in 1945 when the U.S. dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, leading to mass destruction and loss of life. The Cold War further escalated fears, prompting global demonstrations and diplomatic efforts to curb nuclear weapons development.

One of the most significant milestones in arms control was the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. This treaty led to the dismantling of nearly 2,700 missiles by 1991. However, subsequent years saw the rise of new nuclear powers, with nine countries now possessing nuclear arsenals. The U.S. and Russia remain the largest nuclear states, controlling over 90% of the world’s total nuclear warheads.

The Urgency of New START Renewal

The current New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), signed in 2010 by then-U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, placed limits on the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems. It also established verification measures, including on-site inspections and data exchanges. However, this treaty is set to expire in February 2026, making Trump’s renewed interest in arms reduction particularly significant.

According to Xiaodon Liang, a senior analyst at the Arms Control Association, "This issue has to be at the top of the agenda, and having a signal that the president is concerned about this issue and thinking about it is very positive."

Given that comprehensive agreements could take years to negotiate, Liang suggests that Trump explore alternative measures, such as an executive agreement with Putin to informally adhere to New START limits beyond 2026. "That would be a stabilising factor in this important bilateral relationship," Liang added.

Diverging Perspectives on Nuclear Policy

Not all analysts share the optimism surrounding diplomatic negotiations. Some advocate for a more aggressive approach, arguing that the U.S. should resume nuclear testing to demonstrate its military capability. Robert Peters, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, has suggested that Trump withdraw from the 1963 Test Ban Treaty with Moscow and conduct above-ground nuclear tests in Nevada or the Pacific Ocean. According to Peters, such actions would signal to adversaries that America’s nuclear arsenal remains formidable.

While Moscow has refrained from nuclear testing since 1990 and the U.S. announced a moratorium two years later, North Korea remains the only nation to have conducted a nuclear test explosion in recent years, with its last test in 2017.

The Doomsday Clock: A Warning Signal

The growing nuclear threats and geopolitical tensions have led the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to move the Doomsday Clock forward to 89 seconds to midnight, signifying the heightened risks of global catastrophe. Daniel Holz, a physics professor at the University of Chicago, explained, "We set the clock closer to midnight because we do not see positive progress on the global challenges we face, including nuclear risk, climate change, biological threats, and advances in disruptive technology."

While the clock serves as a symbolic warning, Liang views it as a crucial tool for raising public awareness about nuclear threats. "It is a good tool for bringing this to more people’s attention. You can’t blame Americans for having so many other issues on their plate, but this clock is an effective reminder," he said.

Challenges and the Path Forward

Former Colombian President and Nobel laureate Juan Manuel Santos believes the biggest challenge for Trump, Putin, and Xi is recognizing the necessity of dialogue. "The biggest challenge, in my view, is for them to understand that they should sit down and talk about how the three of them can take decisions to save their own countries and the whole world," he stated.

Liang compared the current situation to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when U.S. President John F. Kennedy and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev engaged in back-channel diplomacy to de-escalate tensions. That crisis led to the signing of the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty, which limited nuclear testing to underground sites.

Despite past agreements, it has been years since the U.S. engaged in substantive denuclearisation talks. The last significant attempt occurred in 2019 during Trump’s first term, when U.S. officials met with North Korean negotiators in Sweden. However, those talks collapsed due to fundamental disagreements over nuclear disarmament terms.

A former State Department spokesperson at the time noted, "The United States has that commitment," but acknowledged that progress on nuclear disarmament requires a sustained and strong diplomatic effort from all sides.

Conclusion

As global nuclear threats continue to rise, Trump’s renewed call for arms reduction talks with Russia and China could mark a pivotal moment in nuclear diplomacy. With New START set to expire in 2026 and increasing tensions among nuclear-armed states, the urgency for renewed negotiations is greater than ever. While some advocate for an aggressive military stance, diplomatic engagement remains the most viable path to reducing the nuclear threat. The world will be watching to see whether Trump, Putin, and Xi can navigate these complex discussions and work toward a safer future for all.