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The Problem when Everyone is a Farmer

I like this brilliant comment on LinkedIn about the fact that Nigerian government is asking everyone to be a farmer. Personally, I do not believe that asking all to be farmers is the way to fix our food problems.

We can NEVER still be self sufficient if EVERY Nigeria goes into agriculture. We cannot build something on NOTHING, it will surely collapse. ...  Many of the people RUSHING into agriculture will SURELY rush out in the next 3 years (you don't rush into agriculture because others are doing it rather you need to be STRATEGIC). The number of people in production are just too many and it is becoming a major problem for us.

The commenter is right: we do not need to be all farmers. Government thinks the more people in farming, the better. That is wrong. We do not need 70% of our working population in agriculture. We need about 10% (as a start, then mature to 2%) of the working population working in farms. To do that, it means we need to modernize the farming systems.

Everyone in farming is a problem. That will not significantly change the agricultural output without fixing structural challenges in the agriculture business.

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For years, Nigerian government has been asking citizens to farm. That is fine. But expecting that to change the food security trajectory is an illusion. Agriculture like artificial intelligence and practically everything in our modern world is no more a game of numbers: it requires knowledge. Nigeria has to invest and build new architectures for modern agriculture and de-emphasize this issue of asking everyone to farm. We have startups working already and government can support them. Everyone does not need to be farming for us to have food security in Nigeria.

Obviously, the way we analyse and evaluate our challenges and programmes is highly warped and flawed. We tend to be 'all over the place', rather than being strategic and also seek improvement on our knowledge base. We want to turn farming to exactly what has happened to trade and commerce: markets everywhere, and an average Nigerian - a trader. It's part of why ecommerce and large supermarkets, who could have helped to guarantee quality and price control are struggling, and will continue to struggle. So many things are scattered, and government struggles to keep track on real activities and tax drive; at the end we churn out statistics that have no relationship with realities. Now we are directly or indirectly calling same on farming, and anyone with opposing view is likely to be seen as being 'lazy' or 'enemy of progress'. I mean, as a country, how many things can we really do very well, with solid structure and strategic plan to boot? I am beginning to see shallowness of thoughts as our greatest national malaise. Everyone is on its own here, and yet there are policymakers and consultants everywhere!

Prof, I quite agree with you. We need to be strategic in our approach to initiatives and what we hope to achieve.

But I see the call for everyone to be involved in Agriculture by the government as an interim way of cushioning the rising unemployment rate while looking elsewhere to raise money to put in place the infrastructural deficits that will support modern agriculture.

I don't think the call for everyone to embrace agriculture is targeted toward food security, rather I see it as a call to be gainfully employed.

Nigeria has to invest and build new architectures for modern agriculture and de-emphasize this issue of asking everyone to farm.

True!

But do we have the ready cash to make that a reality?

We do not need to have the cash: all we need to is to have the right policy. Our usual thinking is that govt has to do these things. No. The problem in Nigeria is that we have a policy where no investor wants to make money and we think that policy is still working. It is like power sector, opportunities everywhere but funds are not moving it. It means the policy is deficient.

We do not need govt cash in agriculture. We need the right policy. Imagine saying that any investor in agriculture that generates more than 10000 bags of rice gets zero taxation. That way, people can rush to improve capacity by raising capital.

Imagine zero taxation for any investment in agro processing business for ten years. There are many ways you can influence the allocation of capable without having cash as a govt.

In U.S. they allow companies to deduct R&D investments from taxes. That way firms can happily invest in R&D knowing the tax incentives.