Quote from Alex bobby on October 19, 2023, 7:33 AM

PMQs just exposed Tory backbench chaos – the threat of all-out revolt is now rising

ANALYSIS: Questions from an MP fleeing to a safer seat and another furious about illegal immigration gave Rishi Sunak more trouble today than Labour. The people of Warrington South watching Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) today could have been forgiven for feeling a little confused when their local Tory MP Andy Carter got up to ask a question about long-awaited transport investment for the constituency.

While most will share his pleasure that former HS2 money seems to be coming their way for "Network North", a number will think it odd that Carter is worrying too much about his current seat at all.

After all just this week it was announced that he was being long-listed for the North West Leicestershire seat about 76 miles drive from his current constituency.

Clearly, his attentions and hopes for loyalties are elsewhere.

Even though Warrington South is changing boundaries, it is not disappearing so Carter, in the parlance of Westminster, is perhaps unkindly referred to as a "carpet bagger" seeking a safer seat. When he announced that he was not standing again back in March, Carter told constituents that after the usual soul searching: "I plan to pursue new opportunities."

Most thought that he intended to be a one-term MP and look for a new job outside Parliament - instead, though, it seemed he was just looking for a safe seat.

And really who can blame him?

Carter is one of quite a number of Conservative MPs with tiny majorities who have realised the game is up in their current seats and are looking for a new political home.

Warrington South returned him with a majority of around 2,000 and with Labour 20 points ahead in the polls it takes little imagination to realise resistance to the inevitable defeat would be futile.

And historically this has happened before.

The late and much revered Sir David Amess, whose murder a year ago by a terrorist was marked this month, famously left Basildon and became an equally superb MP in Southend in 1997 for the same reason. But MPs shifting seats is bad news for Sunak.

Because when a year away from an election your MPs do not have any confidence in retaining their seats then as a leader you are in trouble. There are many more in Carter's situation and many others have just decided to step down or accept defeat with a payoff. But in the midst of the political ceasefire which characterised PMQs today between the party leaderships discussing the appalling crisis in Israel following Hamas's terror attacks, there was another reminder of the nervousness of Tory MPs.

The most difficult and pointed question Mr Sunak faced came from a Tory rarity a by election winner the MP for Hartlepool Jill Mortimer.

Ms Mortimer did not mince her words as she described how her 70-year-old constituent was murdered by an illegal migrant on Sunday.

She roared: "Enough is enough! I want these people out of Hartlepool now!"

Her anger and frustration were met with here, from many of her colleagues who share the same emotions.

Many, especially in former Labour Red Wall seats turned Brexit heartlands, cannot see how they can win until the small boats are stopped. They certainly cannot hold on to their seats while local hotels are packed with illegal migrants.

The two by-elections in nominally safe Tory seats tomorrow loom even larger now.

So, while Sunak hoped to be statesman-like at a time of international crisis the political realities and the fear of electoral defeat were not far away even on a day of political ceasefire between the main parties.