Quote from Alex bobby on January 11, 2025, 5:42 AM

Jake Sullivan Urges Continuity in U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy as Trump Administration Prepares Transition

Jake Sullivan, the outgoing U.S. national security adviser, is urging the incoming Trump administration to maintain President Joe Biden’s strategy of strengthening alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. Sullivan emphasized the importance of continuity in countering adversaries such as China and North Korea during a roundtable with journalists on Friday.

Strengthening Regional Alliances

“The American position in the region is incredibly strong right now,” Sullivan told reporters. He highlighted key aspects of Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy, including bolstering ties with allies and enhancing cooperation through multilateral frameworks like the Quad (comprising the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia) and the AUKUS security pact with the United Kingdom and Australia. The latter provides Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, a move aimed at better patrolling and securing the Indo-Pacific waters.

Sullivan also pointed to trilateral cooperation among the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. Under Biden’s leadership, former adversaries Japan and South Korea have worked closely to deter North Korea’s nuclear threat. Similarly, trilateral engagements involving the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines have sought to counter Beijing’s assertiveness in the South China Sea.

“There should be more continuity than significant change concerning our Indo-Pacific strategy,” Sullivan said. However, he acknowledged uncertainty about the incoming administration’s approach.

Challenges and Unfinished Business

Despite the administration’s efforts, Sullivan admitted that little progress had been made on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. He warned of an increasingly complex threat environment, noting closer ties between North Korea and Russia and broader alignment among key adversaries, including China, Iran, and Russia.

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific Program, echoed Sullivan’s concerns. She noted the rapid development of military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, including reports of North Korean troops supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. Glaser also highlighted Beijing’s refusal to curb this growing alliance.

Linking Europe and the Indo-Pacific

Sullivan underscored the interconnectedness of global security, warning that reduced U.S. support for Ukraine could embolden China. “What happens in Ukraine matters for the Indo-Pacific,” he said, adding that Beijing is closely monitoring the West’s response to Russian aggression.

Biden’s aides have consistently voiced concerns that a weakened stance on Ukraine could encourage China to take more aggressive actions, such as invading Taiwan or expanding its territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Potential Shifts Under Trump

With the incoming Trump administration, significant policy changes could be on the horizon. Trump has appointed well-known China hawks to key positions, including Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Representative Mike Waltz, who is expected to succeed Sullivan as national security adviser.

However, Waltz has already signaled a major shift by announcing plans to terminate all nonpartisan senior staffers on loan from other departments. This move aims to align the National Security Council (NSC) with Trump’s policy agenda and could lead to a more transactional approach to foreign relations.

“If you do form alliances, they’re going to have to be based on clear, specific quid pro quo transactions,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. During his first term, Trump prioritized bilateral ties and withdrew from key international organizations and agreements, including the Paris Climate Accord, the U.N. Human Rights Council, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Focus on Bilateral Relations

Analysts expect the Trump administration to focus more on bilateral relationships, particularly with strong conservative leaders like Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, noted that Trump might de-emphasize multilateral groups such as the U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral partnership, especially if political dynamics in Seoul shift.

“What remains unclear is whether Trump will be confrontational with China outside the economic arena,” Cooper said. He pointed out that while Trump has shown a willingness to engage directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping, many within his administration are likely to push for a harder stance on security and technology issues.

Trade Policy Overhaul

Trade policy is one area where analysts expect a stark departure from Biden’s approach. Trump has vowed to implement protectionist measures and wield tariffs as a tool not only against adversaries but also against regional partners with significant trade surpluses, including Japan.

During his campaign, Trump promised to dismantle the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), a key initiative launched by Biden in 2022 to revitalize trade ties with regional partners. Unlike traditional trade deals, IPEF focuses on non-trade priorities such as supply chain resilience, digital infrastructure, and clean energy transition. However, it has faced criticism for not offering market access, a key demand from regional partners, particularly as China expands its influence through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

Balancing Continuity and Change

While Trump’s past approach to alliances has been more transactional, some degree of continuity in U.S. policy toward China is likely. Relations between Washington and Beijing have remained adversarial, and Trump’s appointees are expected to maintain a hard line on key security issues.

Nevertheless, significant uncertainties remain. Whether the U.S. will maintain robust support for multilateral initiatives and alliances or revert to a more unilateral approach will shape the region’s geopolitical landscape in the coming years.

As the Trump administration prepares to take the reins, regional partners and adversaries alike are closely watching Washington’s next moves. The balance of power in the Indo-Pacific hangs in the balance, with potential implications for global stability and security.