Quote from Alex bobby on November 22, 2023, 4:35 PM

Veteran anti-Islam populist leader Geert Wilders is heading for a dramatic victory in the the Dutch general election, says an Ipsos exit poll.

After 25 years in the Dutch parliament, his Freedom party is heading for 35 seats, according to the poll, well ahead of his nearest rival, a left-wing alliance. If confirmed the result will shake Dutch politics.

But he will struggle to find parties to join him in government.

No single party can win enough seats to govern alone, and three big parties behind him have made clear they have no desire to work with Mr Wilders.

But he was in combative mood in his victory speech: "We want to govern and with 35 seats we will govern. "The left-wing alliance under Frans Timmermans is predicted to come in second with 26 seats.

The original favourites to win the race, the centre-right liberals under new leader Dilan Yesilgöz, are heading for third place, ahead of a brand new centre party under whistleblower MP Pieter Omtzigt.

If confirmed, the result will send shockwaves around Europe, as the Netherlands is one of the founding members of what became the European Union.

Mr Wilders wants to hold a referendum to leave the EU, dubbed a "Nexit", although he recognises there is no national mood to do so.

He also tempered his language in the run-up to the vote, saying on the eve of the vote that there were more pressing issues at the moment than his commitment to ban Islam, and he was prepared to put that on hold.

But in his victory speech on Wednesday night he declared that the Dutch voter had spoken and chosen "an agenda of hope".

He told his supporters that now the campaign was over it was time to work together and the Freedom Party would do so seriously from a great position of strength.

There really is a sense of a new era beginning in Dutch politics in Wednesday's snap parliamentary election.

Not only is a brand new party among the front-runners, but the Netherlands could be about to welcome its first female prime minister too. Mark Rutte's 13-year era ended when his fourth government collapsed, and this election has been fought on a cluster of domestic crises - from the high cost of living and a shortage of housing, to healthcare and migration.

What you need to know

It has been only two years since the last vote, but many of the leaders standing are new, including Dilan Yesilgöz, the woman tipped to lead the country and the new head of Mr Rutte's liberal-conservative VVD.

Of the 26 parties taking part, four are leading the race for the Dutch parliament. Apart from the VVD, the other three feature a centrist party formed only three months ago by Pieter Omtzigt, 49, an anti-Islam populist, Geert Wilders, and a left-wing alliance under ex-EU commissioner Frans Timmermans.

What makes this election highly unpredictable is that as many as 70% of voters were yet to decide, according to pollsters this week. And for the first time in Dutch history it is possible no party will win 30 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

The threshold is so low that as many as 17 parties could enter parliament. The last coalition took nine months to form and lasted less than two years.

Who to watch out for

Dilan Yesilgöz: She is the daughter of Turkish refugees and was once dubbed a "pitbull in high heels" because of her no-nonsense politics,

She has run a slick campaign as new VVD leader. A promo video shared on social media shows her sparring with heavyweight kickboxing champion Rico Verhoeven.

As justice minister, she was seen as a tough negotiator and a strong communicator, and her gender has played no part in the election campaign. "I think she's avoiding these issues because the party has an over-representation of male voters in its electorate," says Sarah de Lange, professor of Political Pluralism at the University of Amsterdam.