Escalations of Trump’s Protectionist Agenda

As of late March 2025, the President Donald Trump’s administration has already escalated tariffs significantly. By March 4, tariffs on all Chinese imports hit 20%, while 25% tariffs were imposed on most Canadian and Mexican goods (with USMCA-compliant goods exempted until April 2). On March 12, 25% tariffs were applied to all steel and aluminum imports, and threats of broader “reciprocal tariffs” and “secondary tariffs” (e.g., 25% on countries buying Venezuelan oil, announced March 24) have rattled markets. The Tax Foundation projects tariffs could affect over $1.4 trillion in imports by April 2025, aligning closely with your $1.5 trillion figure.

Expanding this to 25+ countries suggests a further broadening—potentially encompassing the EU, BRICS nations (warned of 100% tariffs if they ditch the dollar), and others like India or Japan, criticized for high tariffs or trade imbalances. $1.5 trillion represents roughly 47% of U.S. goods imports (based on 2023’s $3.2 trillion total). Targeting 25+ countries could hit major traders like China ($560 billion in 2023), Canada ($420 billion), Mexico ($320 billion), and the EU ($570 billion combined), plus smaller players. A 20%+ tariff would raise costs dramatically, reducing import volumes.

Simulations from the Centre for International Trade Policy (CITP) suggest a 20% universal tariff could cut U.S. imports by 37% if retaliated against, aligning with this scale. Retaliation is likely. Canada’s $20.8 billion in counter-tariffs (March 4) and China’s $33.4 billion (by March 10) show a pattern. If 25+ countries respond, U.S. exports ($2 trillion in 2023) could face reciprocal levies, hitting agriculture, tech, and energy sectors hard. Tariffs act as a tax on imports, passed to consumers. The Budget Lab at Yale estimates a 20% universal tariff (with 60% on China) could raise U.S. consumer prices by 1.4%–5.1%, or $1,900–$7,600 per household annually.

For $1.5 trillion at 20%+, Nationwide Mutual’s Kathy Bostjancic pegs it at ~$1,000 per household yearly, though broader coverage could push this higher—say, $2,000–$3,000 if supply chains tighten. Goods like electronics (China), autos (Mexico, Canada), and energy (Canada) would see immediate price hikes, compounding inflation fears already stoked by Trump’s earlier moves. The S&P 500 losing $2.5 trillion over three days implies a ~10% drop from its March 2025 peak. On March 10, it shed 2.7% ($1.4 trillion) in one day amid tariff uncertainty, per Reuters. A three-day $2.5 trillion plunge suggests a market cap fall from ~$48 trillion to $45.5 trillion, entering correction territory (10%+ decline).

The S&P hitting six-month lows by March 31, driven by tariff fears and recession risks. Tech (e.g., Nasdaq’s 4% drop March 10), autos (e.g., Stellantis down 7%), and retail (e.g., Best Buy warning of price hikes) would lead losses, as seen earlier in 2025. Goldman Sachs raised recession odds to 20% and JPMorgan to 40% by mid-March, fueling the sell-off. Expanding tariffs to 25+ countries risks a full-scale trade war. The EU’s two-phase retaliation plan (announced March 12) and China’s WTO complaints signal resistance. Secondary tariffs (e.g., on Russian oil buyers, threatened March 30) could isolate the U.S. further, disrupting $1.5 trillion in trade flows.

Bloomberg Economics estimates Trump’s earlier tariffs could cut U.S. GDP by 0.4%–1.3%. Scaling to $1.5 trillion, with retaliation, GDP might shrink 1.5%–2%, risking recession if consumer spending falters. Canada and Mexico, tied to 70%+ of their GDP via U.S. trade, could tip into recessions, per RBC Capital Markets. Tariffs and uncertainty have already boosted the dollar (e.g., 20-year high vs. Canadian dollar in February). This mitigates some import cost hikes but crushes U.S. exporters, amplifying trade deficits ironically counter to Trump’s goals.

Marathon Digital: Its $2 billion Bitcoin buy could gain if tariffs spark a flight to crypto as a hedge. Bitcoin dropped 5% on March 10 amid risk-off sentiment, but a prolonged trade war might reverse this, boosting Marathon’s 46,376 BTC holdings. Bukele’s visit Scheduled for April, Bukele’s talks with Trump could align El Salvador’s Bitcoin strategy with U.S. reserves, potentially offsetting tariff fallout via crypto innovation. A stronger U.S.-El Salvador axis might also counter regional trade disruptions. The U.S. imposing 20%+ tariffs on $1.5 trillion from 25+ countries, with the S&P 500 shedding $2.5 trillion in three days, paints a picture of escalating trade tensions and market panic. It’s a plausible escalation of Trump’s protectionist agenda, driving inflation, recession fears, and global retaliation.