Most modern citizens of the world do not support coups. And most global citizens do not support what happened in the Niger Republic, even though it seems some of its citizens do. Whether you call it democracy or military-cracy, people want good governance. And when they do not have that, most do not care about the type of attire (agbada, khaki, suit, etc) the person wears to work as a president.
Where am I going? I am not in support of the ECOWAS going after the coup plotters militarily. Also, I am not in support of France going into Niger to rescue the deposed president militarily.
First, ECOWAS can win the battle against the coup plotters but it cannot win the war on providing the good governance the Nigerien people want (most ECOWAS countries cannot even help themselves economically), and if that does not come, nothing will change. Rather, pockets of crises will emerge, post-ECOWAS intervention. I have been to Sierra Leone many times, as part of the United Nations Lesson Learned programme, where we dealt with young people who due to wars never entered any school up to their 17th birthdays. Any ECOWAS military intervention will become a tribal war in Niger because one tribe will say the deposed government invited foreigners. No one wants that.
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Secondly, from the experience in Libya, it is evident that France cannot deliver anything positive after NATO took down Ghaddafi, and allowed Libya into a miry clay. So, no France in Niger on this matter.
What do we do? Dialogue. ECOWAS should deploy carrots here. Tell the men that ECOWAS does not want coups and a timetable must be put in place for return to civilian rule, and if they do, ECOWAS and partners will inject $1 billion into healthcare, education and basic food (via regional guarantees to investors into Niger).
That deal will work because that was the fundamental reason why the coup plotters came. Moreso ECOWAS should harmonize its security playbook for all member nations, and make the region safer.. The coup plotters had complained of insecurity, but we can all agree that insecurity is not isolated to Niger alone in the ECOWAS region.
ECOWAS may not have money to invest. But it can give regional sovereign guarantees which can be backed by AfDB and World Bank on this matter.
I wrote investments via guarantee. You are not sharing any money! You are simply guaranteeing investors’ risks
Comment on Feed
Comment 1: Ndubuisi Ekekwe, the putschists, did not seize power in Niger because the people wanted ‘Good Governance’ (research on the root cause); they did the coup for the following reasons:
- Bazoum is from a minority group (Shuwa-Arabs are just 5% of the Niger).
- Tchiani was to be retired; so he played a fast one on Bazoum
- This was the first civilian transition in Niger since 1960. The military is used to being in power
There has been no recorded protest against Bazoum by Nigeriens since he resumed; therefore, the popular rationale of ‘Bad Governance’ is a non-starter. This is just a military pretence.
What will make the junta case worse is that Tinubu has been at the receiving end of military abuse (his exile between 1993 and 1998), and he hates military incursion so much.
I predict pressure on the junta and a possible military operation to put sense in those guys. Allowing Tchiani to plan for election is an admittance that they are right in their action.
I support economic and diplomatic pressure to remove the khaki boys and possible military operations if they refuse the voice of reasoning. Ghana and Nigeria are at risk if we continue to accept the military lame excuses to seize power.
My Response: “- Bazoum is from a minority group (Shuwa-Arabs are just 5% of the Niger).” – you just explained why military solution will not work. Do it and it becomes a tribal war. Niger is a shield to Nigeria from Libya. Once it begins a war, it means from Libya to Niger and to Nigeria are at war. Magically, ECOWAS is done. So, while my postulation may not be perfect, it is the only way NOT to extend the Libya cold war into West Africa.
Comment 2: This is a more plausible approach to the situation in Niger today. The display of arrogance and threats towards the military takeover, signposts the archaic option ECOWAS has always adopted in tackling regional crises. Good governance is at the heart of the crisis and, the regional body must bring palliative to the table in order alleviate the suffering of the civilians. ECOWAS needs to rewrite their rules of engagement in the region.
Comment 3: Prof, that “timetable” could turn to another 8 years of brutal rule by the junta.
The simple solution will be to show these coup plotters and the rogue politicians the hard ways – take them out with force, lock them up and throw the keys in ocean.
A word should be enough for the wise…
Comment 3R: There is no place in this world (may not be 100% right) where peace is restored through the use of military force (the hard way) as you stated. Peace is restored through dialogue and that is the surest way.
ECOWAS needs a new playbook in handling such situations. What ever decision taken will either tame or mar the current tension surrounding this matter.
My Response: Which Army in ECOWAS will do that? This one that cannot even catch escaped prisoners? You can take off the coup plotters but you have no chance to restore peace because if Niger falls, Libya has a direct link to Nigeria. Niger has been protecting Nigeria from the mess in Libya.
Comment 4: It’s sad when a prevalent ugly reality makes other far worse realities start to seem attractive. This is the case across Africa.
It will be a disaster of epic proportions not just for the people of Niger, but globally, if ECOWAS and/or the West adopt a military approach to this recent junta in Niger. The consequences would be far-reaching, especially for an already weakened Nigerian state – itself battling a crisis of acute poverty, near instability and legitimacy. For the longest, this country has served as a buffer of some sort for Nigeria against the mess made by Obama-led NATO across the Sahel (Nigeria is affected regardless but it could have been worse).
A secondary effect, which one expects the EU to fully grasp will be the migrant crisis that’s sure to erupt along their corridors. This will be particularly interesting considering the evergrowing anti-immigrant sentiments across many parts of Europe.
This could easily be a very consequential moment for the continent’s history, and it calls for political dexterity, especially on the part of West African leadership. ECOWAS and Nigeria in particular, cannot allow itself become a pawn in the West’s needless proxy wars.
Wisdom is profitable to direct.
Comment 5: Just as you pointed out using force won’t solve the problem of Military intervention in government. Diplomacy should be used especially by ECOWAS to mediate in this situation.
Jaw jaw approach is strongly advised , deploying forces to Niger will have colossal effects especially as concerned loss of lives and properties.
Secondly , the AU, ECOWAS and other international organisations should look into what causes military incursions with a view to solving the root causes to avert future occurrences .
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You are neither a career diplomat nor a political leader, but you have some good sense of what could be effective, as against some of the noises and unforced errors currently brewing.
But before we run too fast, the apparent acrobatics and gymnastics coming from the ECOWAS gang, are those things their independent thinking or they are being told what to do from the other side? This is very key, because once they go militarily, the script will write itself. Asad is still the president of Syria, there is a reason for that.
Democracy does not have a universal definition, the first malady to cure is the arrogance of claiming to know what is best for other people, nothing can be more nauseating than that.
Why is democracy not working in Africa? When you are incapable of conducting a decent election, and then still cannot improve people’s lives; of course the ones still power across ECOWAS are worried, before it touches them.
No military action of any kind is needed, just negotiate peaceful transition with those that captured power, and do everything possible to know where ordinary people in Niger stand in all of these. If you go by force, Russia may pick interest, and you can never win once Putin gets in the mix.