The fact that Mr. Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra State and presidential candidate for the Labour Party in the 2023 election, left the largest opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party, on May 24, 2022, is no longer a breaking news story. The fact that the bulk of Nigerian youths have been supporting him on social media is therefore not breaking news. Peter Obi informed Senator Iyorchia Ayu, the PDP’s national chairman, in a letter saying he was resigning from the party due to changes within the party that prevented him from continuing to play a role and contribute positively. He further stated that: “Our national challenges are deep-rooted and require that we each make profound sacrifices towards rescuing our country.”
Claim
Meanwhile, as the LP’s candidate continues to garner considerable virtual support, a former presidential media advisor to President Goodluck Jonathan has claimed that social media support, particularly on Twitter, will be absorbed by Big Brother Naija, a popular reality TV show. The show began on Saturday, July 23 and Sunday, July 24, 2022. It is scheduled to run for 72 days. Mr Reno Omokri made his claim in the context of the show’s popularity among Nigerian youths. According to him, “In less than 24 hours, there has been an abrupt shift from Peter Obi to #BBNaija. For the first time in months, nothing about Obi is on Twitter’s top 10 trends. While others were building structures on the ground, Peter was fooling Obidients online. Oya, insult me!”
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In line with his expectations, a number of tweeps reacted to his comment negatively. One of the tweeps said “#BBNaija hashtag will top the trend table for 12 weeks straight. Infiltrate it with Peter Obi’s fliers and posters. Keep Obi on their faces.” Another Twitter user advised young people to take advantage of the programme and include the presidential candidate’s hashtag in their BBNaija tweets in order to make him more popular as the 72-day show progresses. This looks to be a technique to maintain support for Mr. Peter Obi. “Dear Obidient Nigerian youths #BBNaija has started, and we all know it comes with super-trending topics. We must be more radical to keep the gospel of PETER OBI ahead of all trends.” Several other tweeps also aligned with this direction of pushing the presidential candidate to the public in real time during the show. “We will not be distracted by BBNaija We will not be distracted by BBNaija We will not be distracted by BBNaija We will not be distracted by BBNaija. In the middle of BBNaija, we will stay focused on Peter Obi and continue to press…”
Verdict
As Twitter users continue to respond to Mr Reno Omokri, our analyst investigates the claims using Google Trends, which normalizes public interest across time on a specific topic or term. The analysis was done in respect to the digital popularity of other candidates among netizens. The level of interest in the three major presidential contenders and the reality program was 3,885 between May 24 and July 26, 2022 (7am). Mr Peter Obi captured the attention of netizens with 58.40 percent of the total volume. Senator Bola Tinubu (16.74%) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar came after him (15.31%). Netizens’ enthusiasm in the reality TV show has waned (9.80%). It was also revealed that the more people were interested in Peter Obi, the less they were interested in the TV reality show and other candidates.
A day-by-day analysis, however, indicates a range of outcomes. In comparison to other contestants and BBNaija, Peter Obi garnered 42.85% of the public’s interest on May 24, 2022. When the TV reality show premiered on July 23, 2022, it fell to 22.95 percent. The reality show benefits from the launch date. Analysis shows that the audience was more interested in the show than the candidates. For the date, the show attracted more than 68% of 122 volume of attention. With 22.95%, Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party trailed the contest, with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president and candidate for the People’s Democratic Party, coming in third. The candidates and show generated no attention between July 24 and July 25, 2022. According to our analyst, the lack of interest may be related to the public’s focus shifting to the release of additional victims of the terrorist attack on the Abuja-Kaduna Train. Our check reveals that Twitter and Facebook were primarily utilized to discuss the release and criticize the federal government for failing to ensure the safety of citizens nationwide.
Exhibit 1: Public Interest in Presidential Candidates and the TV Reality Show Overtime
Given the emerging insights and the fact that Mr Peter Obi’s popularity cannot be established within regions of decrease and growth using the programme alone, our analyst predicts that Mr Reno Omokri’s claim will not hold significantly over the 72-day run of the TV reality show. The data in Exhibit 2 strengthens this position even further. According to the data, for the next 60 days (beginning July 26, 2022), Mr Peter Obi’s and other candidates’ virtual mobility will be diminishing and increasing in accordance with events that unfold as a result of the program, as well as other predicted and unexpected events. The projection favours the People’s Democratic Party candidate over others (see Exhibit 2).
Exhibit 2: Projected public interest in the next 60 days
