Many petrol stations in China are bankrupt. In the United States, many petrol stations are closing. And now, some major car brands are discontinuing their fossil-fuel vehicles, for electric vehicles: “After almost 60 years, General Motors is discontinuing the Chevrolet Malibu, shutting down production and retooling its Kansas assembly plant to make next-generation Chevy Bolt electric vehicles…GM, which has sold more than 10 million Malibu sedans, has been moving aggressively in the direction of EVs and stopped producing other popular gas-powered models, such as the Chevy Camaro. ” – LinkedIn News note.
If this trajectory continues, what should be Nigeria’s energy policy?
Understand that we do not buy a lot of NEW cars for them to keep making these fossil-fuel cars if the main global markets have moved on. In other words, they will follow China and Americans who buy millions of new cars in a year: “ In 2022, the US sold around 13.6 million new light-duty vehicles, and in total, 52.2 million vehicles were sold that year. “
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If a huge percentage is EV, I am not sure any car brand will keep making petrol cars because about 10,000 units would be sold in Nigeria. In other words, we can have our refineries but with few cars to use the petrol coming from them, in just a few years.
Sure, we need petrol today, and that is why the nation needs a solid energy transition strategy. Indeed, we do not have the capacity to tell Toyota, GM, Honda, etc what to make because we do not buy a lot of cars. If they move on, they’re gone.
Many petrol stations in China are bankrupt. In the United States, many petrol stations are closing. And now, some major car brands are discontinuing their fossil-fuel vehicles, for electric vehicles: "After almost 60 years, General Motors is discontinuing the Chevrolet Malibu,… pic.twitter.com/8lz50UGkd5
— Ndubuisi Ekekwe (@ndekekwe) May 9, 2024
Comment: Many is not a fact. You should instead show the numbers. If gasoline vehicles are being abandoned at the rate you claim, how come global gasoline demand hasn’t been significantly affected?
My Response: Your position is actually the same point many oil gulf regions make. But what they miss is this: gasoline demand is rising because the world is urbanizing and more people in developing countries are buying new cars (new and old) because the world is growing. So, if say we use 20 litres of gasoline today, even though it is higher than the previous number, if not for EV, it ought to be say 30 liters. That is the displacement.
“As of 2023, China’s rechargeable car market share was 37%, up from 30% in 2022. In March 2024, new energy vehicles (NEVs), which include all-electric models and plug-in hybrids, made up 41.5% of all passenger car sales in China. In 2023, EV sales in China increased by 38% to 9.49 million units, which is a 31% market share”
Yes, in China, 42% of new cars are new energy cars. That does not mean gasoline cars may not increase, from the previous number, but it is not going to increase at the rate if there are no EV cars. So, using only the absolute gasoline number without looking at the growth rate may not give the full picture.
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We have electricity policy that has not produced much electricity, so, how will the Nigeria’s energy policy make electric cars cheaper and affordable? It is not clear.
The cars made 18 years ago are still finding their way into Nigeria, the ones made between 2020 and now will still be finding their way here by 2040. This also means that we have at least 30 years ahead before any shift in energy will become mainstream here, it is not about campaign or crafting policies, we have to also look at the economics.
At what point will EV vehicles become so cheap such that people will go for them ahead of fossil fuel vehicles? If it’s not happening soon, it means that we are not abandoning fossil fuel vehicles soon, irrespective of whether global manufacturers are still in the business or not. Our refineries are not abundant enough to fully service African markets, so we can’t be shutting down refineries here anytime soon.
The world is already broken, so nobody needs to dwell so much on what is happening elsewhere, just focus fully on what works for you and your people, the rest of the world can continue crying.
North Korea is still existing, they don’t even explain to anyone how they do it, yet they are still standing.