Beyond Oil and Loans, Nigeria’s Problem is #Leadership

Good People, I got the responses where some of our members concluded thus: Nigeria’s GDP per capita collapsed from 2015 because oil prices went down. Unfortunately, oil price was not the reason why one indicator which had grown consistently since 1999 lost steam in 2015. What happened was pure leadership. I can write this as the election season is over and that means we can have a debate.

I can write this as the election season is over. And of course,  I am not telling people how to vote or who to vote for. I am only looking at data and nothing but data. From 1999-2015, Nigeria’s GDP per capita was growing as I noted here in a chart.

But when a new government came in 2015, its leadership style froze the economy. How? When it took the government months to appoint ministers and core team members in the administration, it put the economy on a stasis. As we know  in Nigeria, power rests with one person and is never shared, and with no minister, ministries went into zombie status. Under that status, we engineered artificial recession because economic activities dropped.

This thing called GDP is the aggregate and measure of economic activities towards creating finished goods and services over a time period. When in Nigeria you have no ministries working  because ministers have not been appointed, those economic activities would be affected. 

Yes, unlike the US where the government could be shut down and not many will feel it since Apple has more “cash” than the US government, and Amazon in Seattle is like a government, Nigeria’s economy is public-led, and that means if the government does not push funds into the economy, everything is frozen. That is why a corn seller, plumber, etc, in Abuja will remind you that “they never release money for budget and that is why things are slow”. So, most things depend on government funds because the private sector is still weak.

I have tried to make the case that it was not about oil money for the GDP per capital decline from 2015; it was pure LEADERSHIP. If Jonathan had stayed in power, that curve would have continued to tick up. Note that Buhari’s government budgeted and spent more money than Jonathan. What oil money could not deliver, loan money did. And because money is money, whether from oil or loan, the difference is efficiency in utilization and implementation. Here is the budget breakdown:

• Nigeria 2013 budget: N4.99 trillion
• Nigeria 2014 budget: N4.69 trillion
• Nigeria 2015 budget: N4.5 trillion

—

• Nigeria 2016 budget: N6.06 trillion
• Budget 2019: N8.92 trillion
• Budget 2022: N16.39 trillion

(convert with the FX then, Buhari had more Naira or USD to spend)

Good People, Nigeria’s main problem is leadership. If we improve the quality of our leaders, we will rise. Yes, if you agree that one person can destroy Nigeria’s trajectory, you must also believe that one person can improve its trajectory. As we have seen in Argentina which got its monthly budget balanced for the first time in 12 years, leadership matters; the new leader resumed in December 2023, and by January 2024, he changed a 12-year record.

(To help you read this piece fairly without the usual tribal mindset, the writer is Ndubuisi Ekong Adamu Kunle Lalong…you can add more)

Good People, I got the responses where some of our members concluded thus: Nigeria’s GDP per capita collapsed from 2015 because oil prices went down. But I posit, unfortunately, that oil price was not the reason why one core  indicator which had grown consistently since 1999 lost… pic.twitter.com/sjWOHUYE0x

— Ndubuisi Ekekwe (@ndekekwe) February 21, 2024

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