The German media conglomerate Bertelsmann, headquartered in Gu?tersloh, is bracing for potential disruptions due to the escalating U.S. tariff policies. With the U.S. and Canada recently overtaking other regions as Bertelsmann’s top revenue sources—marking a historic shift for the company—the stakes are high. The Trump administration’s imposition of 20%+ tariffs on $1.5 trillion in imports from 25+ countries, including key European nations, threatens to ripple through Bertelsmann’s operations, particularly given its significant U.S. market exposure.
Bertelsmann’s U.S.-focused subsidiaries, like Penguin Random House (publishing) and BMG (music), rely heavily on the American market. Reports indicate that in 2024, the U.S. and Canada accounted for the majority of its revenue, surpassing Europe. Tariffs could raise costs for imported goods (e.g., paper, production materials) or dampen U.S. consumer demand, squeezing profit margins. The company’s 2026 revenue target, already downgraded to €21 billion from €24 billion in 2024 due to divestitures, might face further pressure. The 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum (effective March 12, 2025) and broader reciprocal tariffs slated for April 2 could increase costs for physical media production, such as books or vinyl records.
While Bertelsmann’s digital offerings (e.g., streaming, e-books) might mitigate some impact, physical goods remain a core segment. EU countermeasures, targeting $28 billion in U.S. goods starting mid-April, could further complicate transatlantic supply chains. The S&P 500’s $2.5 trillion drop over three days reflects investor jitters, which could reduce U.S. advertising budgets—a key revenue stream for Bertelsmann’s RTL Group and other media arms. Goldman Sachs notes that European firms like Bertelsmann could see a 5-10% earnings hit from 10% U.S. tariffs; a 20%+ rate amplifies this risk. Uncertainty might also delay investments, a concern echoed in the company’s cautious 2026 EBITDA forecast of €3.4 billion.
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On March 12, 2025, the European Commission unveiled plans to impose counter-tariffs on $28 billion (€26 billion) of U.S. goods, matching the scale of U.S. tariffs on EU steel and aluminum (25% effective March 12). These measures, set to fully activate by April 13 after a phased rollout starting April 1, target iconic U.S. exports like bourbon, motorcycles e.g., Harley-Davidson, beef, poultry, and jeans—echoing strategies from Trump’s first term to hit politically sensitive Republican states. Initially split into two phases ($8 billion on April 1, $19.6 billion on April 13), the EU delayed the first wave to align both sets for mid-April, as announced on March 20. This adjustment, per Trade Commissioner Maros? S?efc?ovic?, allows more time for member state consultations and U.S. negotiations while refining the 99-page list of targeted goods.
Bertelsmann’s shift to North American dominance makes it vulnerable to Trump’s protectionism. Unlike 2018-2019, when tariffs were narrower, the current broad scope (covering $1.5 trillion in imports) hits harder. The Bundesbank’s Joachim Nagel warned that Germany could lose 1% of GDP from such tariffs, indirectly pressuring German firms like Bertelsmann. While not directly tied to Bertelsmann, the tariff-induced market volatility could boost crypto interest (e.g., Marathon Digital’s Bitcoin play). If Bukele’s White House visit in April 2025 solidifies a U.S.-El Salvador Bitcoin pact, it might indirectly influence media narratives Bertelsmann covers, though this is speculative.
Bertelsmann has experience navigating tariff turbulence from Trump’s first term, having leaned into digital transformation. It could shift sourcing to U.S. suppliers or accelerate digital revenue (e.g., via Fremantle’s content production), but physical goods exposure remains a weak spot. The EU’s negotiation window before April counter-tariffs offers hope, yet Bertelsmann’s silence on specific plans (unlike vocal firms like Siemens Energy) suggests a wait-and-see approach. Disruption seems inevitable, with the scale hinging on tariff duration and retaliation intensity.
