In Southeast Nigeria, you have 87% chance of being a governor if the outgoing governor supports you. In short, statistically bound, it is easier to beat an incumbent governor than to beat his anointed one in the region! Simply, going against the anointed one is very tough. This is because ideas largely don’t matter and the gatekeepers have closed the flanks.
As we celebrate Prof Soludo of Anambra State and his excellent public leadership, it is key to understand that even when he was at his zenith (freshly leaving Central Bank of Nigeria as governor), he could not break into the state mansion. Largely, his stellar accomplishments could not overcome the roadblocks, put by the gatekeepers!
He lost in 2009 (PDP), did not advance much in 2013 (APGA); he sought the state mansion in both cases.
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But with the anointing of the outgoing governor, those great qualities compounded and he leveraged them to become the governor-elect. As you plan to contest, understand the asymmetric influence outgoing governors have. I am a math guy – I ran the numbers; it is hard business.
Sure – this is not to say that you have no chance. But examine your playbook well before you begin that journey. Do not be carried away by the effervescence of social media; elections in Southeast Nigeria, and Nigeria in general, demand more than social media Likes and Shares.
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You want to contest? Don’t worry, there’s a pathway for you, as long as the gods are happy…
Soludo’s case was actually peculiar, the only election he fully contested was that of 2009/2010, under PDP, though he was advised not to contest, in order to make it a straight fight between Obi and Ngige, so he was destined to lose anyway.
Then by 2013, Peter Obi came up with the idea of zoning the governorship ticket to the north, Soludo is from the south, so automatically he was schemed out, and by 2018, Obiano was going for second term, and there was already an ‘understanding’ that the man Soludo would get the ticket, and it came to pass…
So, if you want to enter the ring, you can start now, Abia is a funny place, but by the time you shake ground now, if you are schemed out, you will still enter the exclusive list of ‘future’ governor of Abia State, the dates will work themselves out…
When are we storming Ovim and Umuahia? Start plotting, no time.
“When are we storming Ovim and Umuahia? Start plotting, no time.” – nice prose!