If you read investment briefs from Nigerian fund managers or broad capital market operators, you will see a version of this line: “We invite you to consider this investment in Africa’s largest economy”. Yes, everyone likes to remind global investors that Nigeria is Africa’s top economy.
Today, we’re learning that very soon, we will be unable to use that line because we are moving to the 4th position in the ranking of Africa’s largest economies, according to IMF Estimates:
- South Africa – $373 billion
- Egypt – $348 billion
- Algeria – $267 billion
- Nigeria – $253 billion
Nigeria’s economy, once the largest in Africa, is projected to slip to fourth place this year, according to the IMF. South Africa is set to overtake Nigeria, Egypt, and Algeria, with an estimated GDP of $373 billion, making it the continent’s largest economy. Nigeria’s GDP is expected to be $253 billion, lagging behind Egypt at $348 billion and Algeria at $267 billion.
Yet, the nation plans to hit $1 trillion in six years, a 4X multiple! A village boy does not understand how that will happen, considering that we have to even stop the bleeding before we talk of growing. The World Bank’s Macro Poverty Outlook for Nigeria: April 2024 just noted that we added another 10 million people into the poverty club in 2023: “Nominal earnings have not kept up with inflation, pushing another 10 million Nigerians into poverty in 2023.”
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“Nigeria’s economic growth has been insufficient to raise living standards, weighed down by weak macroeconomic fundamentals and several structural constraints. Overreliance on the oil sector for fiscal revenues, exports, and FX inflows led macro stability to erode with the sector’s deteriorating performance in recent years. Low revenues—including due to a costly petrol subsidy, low tax rates, and weak tax administration—have limited state capacity and public service delivery.
“Inflation has remained high and escalating on the back of a relatively loose monetary policy and exchange rate depreciation. Structural factors holding back the country’s growth potential include lack of adequate energy and transport infrastructure, high domestic trade costs and foreign trade protectionism, widespread insecurity, weak institutions, and low levels of human capital development.”
Good People, if you look across all indicators, South Africa has won big. Its stock market value is more than $1 trillion larger than Nigeria’s. Its annual budget is close to $100 billion more than Nigeria’s. Its annual revenue hits close to $100 billion more than Nigeria’s annual budget. Of course, we’re more than 3X larger in population; so, we have small wins there…LOL.
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Give us pawa (power), and we will change your life. And after grabbing pawa (power), rather than changing your life, the life is changing you and them, and they have no answers. A wealthy man surrounded by poor people is also poor, so the ruling class is poor as the poorest Nigerians. Make no mistake about that.
How do we get Nigeria back to its former bragging right as Africa’s largest economy? This thing used to be around $500 billion, but now it has halved.
When you cannot make things better, at least leave it the way you met it, but ruining things for everyone and still trying to explain your way out of it will never stick. That is arrogance, a byproduct of ignorance.
There are peacetime leaders, there are wartime leaders; there are stable economy leaders, there are turbulent economy leaders; there are high oil prices leaders, there are low oil prices leaders. Each season has traits required from a particular leader to navigate successfully. Excuses don’t work, you just need the right set of people meant for the season you are in, else your situation becomes worse.
Buhari was so bad, but what happens if somehow (God forbid) he produces better numbers than Tinubu? Lord have mercy.
Nigerias GDP did not grow to $ 500 bn.
It became 500 bn after some “paper work” It was a “magic mago” growth which foreign investors saw and contributed to the first rush out of Nigeria. Nov 2014. That was the day Dangote shed $ 5bn in a day.
Apart from those who love to win even if it means cheat to win, any analyst would have seen that it was impossible for Nigeria to be bigger than SA and Egypt.
SA produces seven times more power and even at that still consumes more fuel and diesel. It has more roads, trains, cars, ships etc. So on what basis was Nigerias economy growing ahead?
Apart from population and falsifying productivity in areas like Agric and nolly wood etc.
Until we learn to honour honesty and integrity we won’t appreciate what a great nation can be.
And BTW, contrary to most opinions on World Bank Ease of Business, and on WTO competitiveness reports that measure more comprehensively (over 100 development indices), on a majority of those indices, the Buhari era Numbers are better than his predecessor. GEJ.
Nigeria climbed from bottom 20 at 170 out of 190 to 131. Same applies on competitiveness index. It’s a more competitive country in 2023 than it was in 2014 according to those indices.
Please check.
Hopefully Tinubu can can do even better and lift Nigeria past 100.
When we are selective on data, then Nigeria is fo8ng backwards, but when we are holistic like WB and WTO, then Nigeria is inching forward despite many challenges.
Ndubisi reports 10m addedd to poverty and that’s terrible. Few people reported that in 2022, Nigeria reduced its unemployment numbers to the lowest on record.