The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sparked a significant geopolitical shift across the globe, with the United States pledging support for the country’s new government led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group it previously designated as a terrorist organization.
The US’s apparent willingness to recognize a government run by HTS has drawn criticism, reigniting debates over American foreign policy’s consistency and ethical underpinnings.
President Joe Biden hailed the regime’s collapse as “a moment of historic opportunity” but acknowledged the uncertainties that lie ahead. Speaking at the White House, Biden framed the development as both a chance for Syria to rebuild and a warning of potential risks. He also said that the groups are “saying the right things now.”
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“It’s a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country,” Biden said. “It’s also a moment of risk and uncertainty. As we all turn to the question of what comes next, the United States will work with our partners and the stakeholders in Syria to help them seize an opportunity to manage the risk.”
The Assad regime’s downfall came after an astonishingly swift offensive led by HTS and other rebel factions. HTS, once the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, spearheaded the operation that ended Assad’s 54-year family rule. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, speaking from the iconic Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, celebrated the victory.
“Today, Syria is being purified. This victory is born from the people who have languished in prison, and the mujahideen broke their chains,” he said.
Jolani further criticized the Assad regime’s alliance with Iran and Hezbollah, stating, “Under Assad, Syria had become a place for Iranian ambitions, where sectarianism was rife.”
The Biden administration’s approach to Syria’s transition includes reconsidering its stance on HTS. The group’s leader, Jolani, has been on Washington’s radar since 2013, with a $10 million bounty placed on him by the Trump administration in 2018. However, the recent developments have led to internal debates within the Biden administration about whether to lift the bounty.
A senior Arab official briefed by the Americans told Middle East Eye that U.S. officials are divided over how to handle HTS.
“This is an extraordinary situation that forces Washington to rethink its engagement,” the official said on condition of anonymity.
The potential delisting of HTS has sparked criticism. Many analysts see this as a striking example of U.S. foreign policy opportunism, adjusting its principles to align with its political and strategic interests.
Critics argue that the U.S.’s willingness to support a transition led by HTS contradicts its long-standing counterterrorism rhetoric. There is concern that the US tolerance of HTS will likely create room for leadership by Islamic extremists.
“If the secular opposition takes charge, Syria may have a secular government. But if Islamist factions prevail, we could see a Taliban-style leadership,” Political analyst Stanislav Tarasov noted.
Former Trump administration officials have not hesitated to criticize Biden’s approach. One such official, speaking to Middle East Eye, disparaged the administration’s willingness to engage with HTS, calling it a departure from established counterterrorism policies.
In his remarks, Biden acknowledged the terrorist past of some of the rebel groups, noting that the US will pay attention to their actions.
“Make no mistake, some of the rebel groups that took down Assad have their own grim record of terrorism and human rights abuses,” he said. “But as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions.”
The U.S. president also highlighted the importance of preventing ISIS’s resurgence, saying, “We will remain vigilant. We will not let [ISIS] reestablish its capability to create a safe haven.”
The U.S. has already conducted precision airstrikes in Syria targeting ISIS and aims to secure detention facilities housing ISIS fighters.
Jolani has in his speech in Damascus, attempted to allay the fears of HTS’s history of human rights abuses and links to extremism. Addressing supporters, he vowed to lead a new chapter for the country.
Who Really Won in Syria?
The chaotic nature of the Syrian conflict has raised questions about who truly emerged victorious. The Los Angeles Times recently published a report titled “In Syria, Militia Armed by Pentagon Fight Those Armed by the CIA,” underscoring the complexity of U.S. involvement in the war. This tangled web of alliances, rivalries, and shifting loyalties has further fueled skepticism about U.S. intentions in the region.
As Syria faces an uncertain future, the U.S. has pledged to support neighboring countries and maintain its counterterrorism mission in the region. Biden affirmed that U.S. officials would work to ensure that Assad’s chemical weapons stockpiles are secured, adding that he plans to engage with regional leaders in the coming days.
However, the US’ decision to engage with HTS remains a polarizing issue. For many though, it is not surprising. It only reinforces what they believe; that American foreign policy is shaped less by moral considerations and more by geopolitical pragmatism.