Adding More Coal Power Plants by 2037: Is Nigeria Serious About Reducing CO2 Emissions from Coal?

Due to Nigeria’s chronic power supply crisis, businesses and people alike believe that giving stable power will help them enhance their economic and social prospects. This has been a form of submission over the years. Nigeria has the capacity to generate 53,900 megawatts of electricity by 2030, according to multiple sources.

However, it has been difficult to maintain existing power generation from various power plants and distribution across the country over the last three decades. Every month, figures from numerous government organisations reveal uneven growth in the power sector. Experts and important stakeholders in the sector have come out with several narratives and counter-narratives in response to the varied progress.

When Nigeria possesses around one billion metric tonnes of coal reserves, which could be used for electricity generation, a number of public affairs analysts and energy specialists see no reason why it should be one of the countries experiencing chronic electricity shortages. Coal could generate 9.9%, 13.8 percent, 15.3 percent, and 15.6 percent of Nigeria’s electricity in 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030, according to an expert. By 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030, coal may generate 1,200MW, 4,400MW, 15,400MW, and 53,900MW of power, respectively.

With these figures, it is apparent that Nigeria has the capacity to generate more megawatts of power for domestic and industrial usage. Experts and public analysts aren’t the only ones who have expressed their opinions on the level of coal-fired electricity generation. According to our checks, industry executives and members of the national legislature have questioned why coal power projects in some states have stopped in recent years.

When one considers what businesses and individuals have lost in terms of productive time and revenue as the electricity crisis continues to affect all sectors and industries, their arguments make sense. What is astonishing, however, is that the government and proponents of coal appropriation for electricity generation are making national commitments to various climate change mitigation accords appear unattainable. The Nigerian government has been demonstrating its commitment to global efforts to tackle climate change since 2015.

Exhibit 1: Per capita electricity consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) of sub-Saharan African countries

Antithetical Behaviour and Carbon Emission Reduction Commitment

Following an examination of several experts’ and public affairs’ positions, as well as the government’s coal power plant projects in some states, our analyst concludes that the government’s and other stakeholders’ actions are incompatible with the country’s commitment to mitigating climate change effects. It also goes against a number of policy measures, goals, and objectives outlined in various strategic policy instruments or plans, such as the National Climate Change Plan and National Climate Change Adaptation Communication Plan recently submitted to important global climate change bodies.

Nigeria pledges in its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement to devote resources to renewable energy in order to achieve an unconditional reduction of 20% of economy-wide GHG emissions compared to the baseline scenario, and a conditional reduction of 45 percent if sufficient international support is provided.

Ending gas flaring by 2030; generating off-grid solar PV of 13 GW (13,000 MW); increasing energy efficiency by 2% annually, resulting in 30% efficiency by 2030; increasing the use of public transportation such as buses, trains, and light rail; increasing the capacity and efficiency of the electricity grid; and promoting the use of climate-smart technologies are among the key measures for achieving Nigeria’s emission reduction commitment. As a result, the NDCs target important carbon-intensive economic sectors like oil and gas, energy, transportation, agriculture, and land use and transportation. The estimated cost of implementing the NDC’s mitigation and adaptation actions is $142 billion, with a projected national benefit of $142 billion, while the estimated national benefit for implementing these measures is roughly $304 billion.

It is, however, surprising that by 2037, the federal government wants to add six new coal-fired power facilities to the 23 now in operation. It also wants to add nine gas plants, bringing the total number of power plants on line to 15 by 2037. Though, our analysis of the project registry of the country’s NDCs reveals that 61.7% of 695 projects were planned and being implemented and would also be executed with the intent of creating access to solar electricity. Over 13% of the projects were also found to be on creating access to water through solar electricity, while 8.6% and 1.7% focus on enabling accessing to electricity through hydropower plant and gas to energy respectively.

Though our analyst does not directly examine the link between coal plant operation and carbon emissions generated between 2016 and 2020, a direct examination of the country’s urbanisation growth rate over that time period shows a 29.8% increase in carbon emissions generated. The urbanisation growth rate was responsible for over 75% of carbon emissions from gas, 62.2 percent from flaring, 84.9 percent from oil, and 2.1 percent from cement.

What is Better for Mitigating Carbon Emissions from Nigeria’s Energy Sector?

According to the emerging insights, the Nigerian government must concentrate on creating a stable and supportive policy environment, as well as a balanced commitment to the implementation of acceptable initiatives.  In light of various studies and expert opinions, which indicate that hydropower, renewable energy, and solar power plants have a greater potential to reduce GHG emissions than coal power plants, our analyst recommends that concerned stakeholders should explore available resources that could assist in generating electricity for current users without jeopardising their health or the ability of future generations to use the same electricity.

Concerned stakeholders really need to listen to the voice of the International Hydropower Associations (IHA), which reveals that “more than 4 billion metric tonnes [estimates] of additional greenhouse gases would be emitted annually, and global emissions from fossil fuels and industry would be at least 10 per cent higher.”