An Igbo proverb is clear – “no man, no matter how wealthy, can prepare enough food for his kinsmen, but if those kinsmen make food for him, he will be unable to consume the whole food”. That proverb is not saying that Dangote cannot feed his kinsmen in Kano. Rather, the proverb is drawing on the strength that comes from unity and the “wisdom of many”.
In the Igbo nation, parents name their children “Igwebuike” [strength in many] because despite the success of any person, the real strength comes in teamwork. The elders conclude, by saying that no matter how big an iroko tree is, it can never be called a forest because a forest requires having many “trees”.
That brings me to the news that the president of Kenya has fired most of his cabinet members: “Kenyan President William Ruto has dismissed nearly his entire cabinet in a sweeping move to address public discontent following weeks of anti-government protests. This decision, announced Thursday, leaves only Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi in their posts.”
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Read carefully, Mr. President is still trying to consume what the young people in Kenya have cooked. I wish him good luck; he has a long way to go. Respect his efforts because what is happening in Kenya compounded over years. Yes, those loans have to be serviced – and paid. It is not only Kenya, most sub-Saharan African countries are at the same phase, but Kenya is a little ahead because they missed the borrowing model which Nigeria recently invented: put a long “cliff period”, shifting the burden to the next government.
Good People, Kenya will have to service those loans and in the next few months, Fitch, S&P, etc will start cutting its credit ratings, and as that happens, the cost of borrowing goes up. The government will react to put a stop gap, and will likely start privatizing government assets and doing financial engineering to “discover” money since taxation is a no-go area. Because it does not have crude oil, copper, gold, etc to refinance the loan, huge adjustments will happen. A season of HUGE austerity is here!
Nigeria. Kenya. Ghana. And indeed Sub-Saharan Africa is in trouble over loans with nothing to show for them. When I grew up in Ovim village, we have a vet clinic, postal service, water, electricity, etc that except noise in the city, nothing was missing! Today, everything has gone.
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